(Updates story first published on Friday, with updates to
sections on Japan, China and Bolivia)
LONDON, Oct 17 (Reuters) - The U.S. government shutdown
extends into another week, earnings season is in full swing,
U.S.-China trade tensions are high, and there's plenty of data
to mull over.
Japan's parliament, meanwhile, may vote on a new prime
minister, and an election in Bolivia has ended almost 20 years
of leftist rule.
Here's all you need to know about the week ahead in world
markets by Lewis Krauskopf in New York, Rocky Swift in Tokyo and
Amanda Cooper, Naomi Rovnick and Marc Jones in London.
1/ US EARNINGS, INFLATION UPDATE ON WAY
U.S. corporate earnings rev up, with Tesla and Netflix ( NFLX )
, while this week will end with a delayed U.S. inflation
release.
After major banks kicked off Q3 earnings, this week sees
reports from an array of industries, including consumer
companies Procter & Gamble ( PG ) and Coca-Cola,
aerospace and defence giant RTX and tech stalwart IBM ( IBM )
.
Investors have also been confronting a government data
blackout due to the federal shutdown that began on October 1.
While key data including the monthly employment report have
been delayed, the government plans to publish September CPI
numbers on Friday, allowing the Social Security Administration
to meet deadlines related to payment of benefits.
The CPI release comes just ahead of the Federal Reserve's
October 28-29 meeting, when the central bank is widely expected
to cut rates by a quarter percentage point.
2/ BIG MOMENT FOR TAKAICHI
Japanese markets await an expected parliamentary vote this week
that may spur another leg up in a record stocks run.
The blue-chip Nikkei hit all-time highs after Sanae
Takaichi, a devotee of the "Abenomics" stimulus policies of the
late Shinzo Abe, won a ruling Liberal Democratic Party election
on October 4.
After a rift with a long-time coalition party, Takaichi and
the LDP last week sought a new partner in the right-leaning
Japan Innovation Party, known as Ishin.
On Monday, Ishin leader Hirofumi Yoshimura said the two
sides would formalise a coalition deal, ahead of a vote in
parliament on Tuesday to decide the next prime minister.
Not surprisingly, the Nikkei is back at record highs.
3/ EARLY WARNING SIGNS
It has been six months since U.S. President Donald Trump
unveiled his "Liberation Day" tariffs.
There are trade deals in place and investors and companies
have some certainty. Or at least, they did until recently.
Tensions have been flaring again between Washington and
Beijing, prompting tit-for-tat fees on cargo ships and ports and
a tightening on two-way supplies of key tech-sector materials
and parts, though there has been some more conciliatory rhetoric
in recent days.
Europe hasn't yet seen evidence of the big spending that
national governments, led by Germany, promised earlier this
year. China, where growth is slowing too, holds a closed-door
meeting of its leaders starting Monday.
The upcoming surveys of business activity for Germany,
France, the UK, the U.S. and the euro zone, among other regions,
in October could start to reflect some of that renewed angst.
4/ STILL HIGH UK INFLATION?
UK inflation data this week could be pivotal for Britain's
gilt markets, sterling and finance minister Rachel Reeves'
ability to limit unpopular tax hikes and spending cuts in her
November 26 budget.
With Britain's fiscal hole widening because of surging debt
payments, Wednesday's September consumer prices report could
fuel rate cut bets and offer Reeves some relief if the
annualised print comes below the Bank of England's 4% forecast.
But a higher-than-expected increase could keep the BoE
cautious and Britain's finances looking precarious, in a threat
to sterling's recent strong run against the dollar.
Gilt markets are exhibiting optimism so far, with UK
borrowing costs falling to over two-month lows as traders priced
a 90% probability of a quarter-point rate cut by February.
5/ VOTING AND VULTURES
Centrist Rodrigo Paz has won Bolivia's presidential
runoff, defeating conservative rival Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga, as
the country's worst economic crisis in a generation helped
propel the end of nearly two decades of leftist rule.
The debt market vultures will be watching closely. The
economy is in deep disarray, with inflation running at nearly
25%, fuel shortages rife and the country's foreign exchange
reserves now barely covering two months of basic imports.
Paz has advocated a gradualist approach, fully aware of the
country's long history of violent unrest at times of economic
pain.
His moderate platform - pledging to maintain social
programmes while promoting private sector-led growth - appeared
to resonate with left-leaning voters disillusioned by the ruling
Socialists.
(Compiled by Dhara Ranasinghe; Graphics by Kripa Jayaram;
Editing by Elaine Hardcastle and Jamie Freed)