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GRAPHIC-Take Five: Who started it?
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GRAPHIC-Take Five: Who started it?
Oct 19, 2025 11:45 PM

(Updates story first published on Friday, with updates to

sections on Japan, China and Bolivia)

LONDON, Oct 17 (Reuters) - The U.S. government shutdown

extends into another week, earnings season is in full swing,

U.S.-China trade tensions are high, and there's plenty of data

to mull over.

Japan's parliament, meanwhile, may vote on a new prime

minister, and an election in Bolivia has ended almost 20 years

of leftist rule.

Here's all you need to know about the week ahead in world

markets by Lewis Krauskopf in New York, Rocky Swift in Tokyo and

Amanda Cooper, Naomi Rovnick and Marc Jones in London.

1/ US EARNINGS, INFLATION UPDATE ON WAY

U.S. corporate earnings rev up, with Tesla and Netflix ( NFLX )

, while this week will end with a delayed U.S. inflation

release.

After major banks kicked off Q3 earnings, this week sees

reports from an array of industries, including consumer

companies Procter & Gamble ( PG ) and Coca-Cola,

aerospace and defence giant RTX and tech stalwart IBM ( IBM )

.

Investors have also been confronting a government data

blackout due to the federal shutdown that began on October 1.

While key data including the monthly employment report have

been delayed, the government plans to publish September CPI

numbers on Friday, allowing the Social Security Administration

to meet deadlines related to payment of benefits.

The CPI release comes just ahead of the Federal Reserve's

October 28-29 meeting, when the central bank is widely expected

to cut rates by a quarter percentage point.

2/ BIG MOMENT FOR TAKAICHI

Japanese markets await an expected parliamentary vote this week

that may spur another leg up in a record stocks run.

The blue-chip Nikkei hit all-time highs after Sanae

Takaichi, a devotee of the "Abenomics" stimulus policies of the

late Shinzo Abe, won a ruling Liberal Democratic Party election

on October 4.

After a rift with a long-time coalition party, Takaichi and

the LDP last week sought a new partner in the right-leaning

Japan Innovation Party, known as Ishin.

On Monday, Ishin leader Hirofumi Yoshimura said the two

sides would formalise a coalition deal, ahead of a vote in

parliament on Tuesday to decide the next prime minister.

Not surprisingly, the Nikkei is back at record highs.

3/ EARLY WARNING SIGNS

It has been six months since U.S. President Donald Trump

unveiled his "Liberation Day" tariffs.

There are trade deals in place and investors and companies

have some certainty. Or at least, they did until recently.

Tensions have been flaring again between Washington and

Beijing, prompting tit-for-tat fees on cargo ships and ports and

a tightening on two-way supplies of key tech-sector materials

and parts, though there has been some more conciliatory rhetoric

in recent days.

Europe hasn't yet seen evidence of the big spending that

national governments, led by Germany, promised earlier this

year. China, where growth is slowing too, holds a closed-door

meeting of its leaders starting Monday.

The upcoming surveys of business activity for Germany,

France, the UK, the U.S. and the euro zone, among other regions,

in October could start to reflect some of that renewed angst.

4/ STILL HIGH UK INFLATION?

UK inflation data this week could be pivotal for Britain's

gilt markets, sterling and finance minister Rachel Reeves'

ability to limit unpopular tax hikes and spending cuts in her

November 26 budget.

With Britain's fiscal hole widening because of surging debt

payments, Wednesday's September consumer prices report could

fuel rate cut bets and offer Reeves some relief if the

annualised print comes below the Bank of England's 4% forecast.

But a higher-than-expected increase could keep the BoE

cautious and Britain's finances looking precarious, in a threat

to sterling's recent strong run against the dollar.

Gilt markets are exhibiting optimism so far, with UK

borrowing costs falling to over two-month lows as traders priced

a 90% probability of a quarter-point rate cut by February.

5/ VOTING AND VULTURES

Centrist Rodrigo Paz has won Bolivia's presidential

runoff, defeating conservative rival Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga, as

the country's worst economic crisis in a generation helped

propel the end of nearly two decades of leftist rule.

The debt market vultures will be watching closely. The

economy is in deep disarray, with inflation running at nearly

25%, fuel shortages rife and the country's foreign exchange

reserves now barely covering two months of basic imports.

Paz has advocated a gradualist approach, fully aware of the

country's long history of violent unrest at times of economic

pain.

His moderate platform - pledging to maintain social

programmes while promoting private sector-led growth - appeared

to resonate with left-leaning voters disillusioned by the ruling

Socialists.

(Compiled by Dhara Ranasinghe; Graphics by Kripa Jayaram;

Editing by Elaine Hardcastle and Jamie Freed)

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