When the COVID-19 pandemic was just beginning to spread in India, large corporations started advising their employees to work from home. What followed is large sections of the working population migrating away from cities as work from home became popular practice. Many people also lost jobs and faced salary cuts, making expensive rents further unaffordable.
This reverse migration of the working population has led to the home rental market now tilting in favour of tenants - at least for a short while - that's the view from NestAway, India's largest home rental network.
Rents for residential properties have seen a correction in the range of 10-50 percent, with the heaviest correction being observed in areas close to business and tech parks, as tenants look for more affordable options in the peripheries or the cities, or in less crowded spaces.
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For NestAway, there has been a 20 percent correction in rentals across their portfolio, about 85 percent of which comprises of affordable houses in the Rs 10,000-Rs 30,000 monthly rent category.
"We are seeing a band-wise correction in rents. On the top end, there is 20 percent correction (rent upwards of Rs 30,000), on rents between Rs 10,000-Rs 20,000 there is 10-15 percent correction, and in very high rental properties there is a 25-30 percent correction," Amarendra Sahu, co-founder and CEO of NestAway told CNBC-TV18, adding that some houses in busy business districts have even seen a correction of up to 50 percent.
Sahu also feels a 20 percent correction is the most landlords are willing to give, though tenants at this time are also negotiating for 40-50 percent in rents. He also added that while the market has tilted in favour of tenants right now, and there are houses available at never-before rents, this phenomenon is not permanent, and rents will attain pre-covid levels when the economy comes back.
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"We are also seeing that people, while indeed moving back to their hometowns, are not vacating their houses. This is because being in a city is an economic imperative. In that sense, India still has a very top 10 cities phenomenon," he added.
NestAway says the company is also educating owners that it is not worthwhile losing a tenant in these times, and owners too are more open to negotiation.
New move-ins suffer as lockdowns continue, new hiring stops
In normal times, the first and second quarter of a year would be NestAway's peak business months as new professionals joining the workforce would move to the cities. Lockdowns in many parts of the state and a freeze on physical on-boarding has significantly driven down demand.
"New business is down to 1/3rd of the usual. We are down by 60 percent in terms of new bookings. March was half of the usual in terms of move-ins, April was a complete washout, May was 10 percent, June came back to 20 percent, July came to 30 percent but went back to 20 percent as many states reimposed lockdowns," Sahu explained.
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"We are going from lockdown to lockdown in terms of new move ins. Traffic on rental websites is back to pre-covid levels but it remains to be seen in if it translates to real conversations," he added.
According to Sahu, transactions closing is a function of lockdowns. NestAway has lost 50 percent of its business, only owing to the fact that there are lockdowns during weekends, restricting movement of people.
"We usually see 10,000-12,000 bookings in July, but we're seeing only close to 2,000 bookings now. There is no visibility in terms of what central government and state government's are going to do so, so we are taking it by the day," Sahu said.
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NestAway's business model, however, is not dependent on new move-ins alone, but captive tenants and owners who keep paying the startup, Sahu told CNBC-TV18. With putting on hold expansion plans and rationalising marketing and distribution spends, the company will be able to weather these tough times.
"This is the best time to rent a long time home. I would urge buyers to negotiate a good deal with the owners at this time and live a quality life in the city," he said. How many people take the advice is a question the industry is keenly looking to find answers to.