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How Reuters calculated the Trump Organization's financial situation
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How Reuters calculated the Trump Organization's financial situation
Aug 21, 2024 6:31 AM

Aug 21 (Reuters) - Reuters sought to estimate the

cashflow being generated by former President Donald J. Trump's

various businesses to try to understand how that business has

changed over the past decade and the extent to which over $500

million in court judgments against him may put strains on that

business.

Reuters used established methodologies and consulted with

experts in the different industries in which The Trump

Organization operates to establish its estimate of around $80

million in cash after operating expenses from Trump's businesses

in 2024.

With respect to Trump's interests in real estate - the

business on which he built his reputation - Reuters looked at

each of the properties in which Trump has an interest

individually. For income-yielding properties like his office

tower at 40 Wall Street or the retail units at Trump Tower in

New York, Reuters worked off net operating income and rental

rate figures produced between 2011 and 2021 by The Trump

Organization released as part of the New York fraud trial

against the group. Reuters also used information about

commercial mortgage backed securities in which the group's

mortgages have been packaged, and financial information from

property tax appeals.

These were adjusted by Reuters for additional costs such as

routine capital expenditure and leasing fees based on expert

guidance and historic averages. Reuters also deducted debt

costs, which can be ascertained from his Office of Government

Ethics (OGE) Candidate financial disclosure, state property

records and information released as part of the fraud trial.

Historical net operating income (NOI) figures were checked

against tax returns and adjusted to reflect current market

conditions, vacancies and other variables, based on expert

advice. There's uncertainty about rental rates and occupancy

levels.

In total, Reuters estimated that Trump will generate free

cashflow from property rental and sales in New York, San

Francisco, Chicago, Las Vegas and Florida of around $3 million

in 2024. It would have been higher were it not for the April

repayment of an around $12 million loan related to Trump Plaza

in New York.

For Trump's golf and resort properties, Reuters worked off

published accounts where these were available, and net operating

income figures produced by an expert hired by the New York

Attorney General in the fraud case. The expert's NOI

calculations were broadly similar to, if usually somewhat lower

than, income figures in valuations produced by a Trump expert

in the case. They were also largely consistent with tax return

information released by the Ways & Means Committee in 2022.

Reuters adjusted 2021 earnings based on revenue increases at

the clubs projected by the Trump expert. Reuters cross-checked

the revenue forecasts, produced in 2023, with industry trends

and revenue figures Trump reported in his OGE disclosure in

August 2024.

Reuters' forecast excludes major capital expenditure on

upgrades. Reuters found no reports of major new upgrades at his

properties being planned in 2024, but its estimate that Trump's

clubs may generate around $70 million this year could be too

high.

Trump earns money from licensing his name to foreign real

estate developers and publishes the revenue received in his OGE

financial disclosures. Reuters estimated Trump will receive a

similar amount from existing deals in 2024 as in 2023 -a

possible over-estimate - and added amounts for each of the two

deals announced this year consistent with the payments he

received on previous deals.

Reuters estimated $11 million of losses at the Trump

Corporation, the entity which provides a centralized management

function to the Trump Organization, based on figures in Trump's

tax returns released by the House Ways & Means Committee in

2022.

Reuters excluded the multi-million dollar legal costs

related to Trump's various court proceedings on the basis that

much of this is being met by his campaign supporters. Also,

Reuters reduced the cost of operating his fleet of aircraft to a

fraction of historic levels because his campaign pays to lease

aircraft from him.

Reuters also excluded any federal income tax payments.

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