Aug 21 (Reuters) - Reuters sought to estimate the
cashflow being generated by former President Donald J. Trump's
various businesses to try to understand how that business has
changed over the past decade and the extent to which over $500
million in court judgments against him may put strains on that
business.
Reuters used established methodologies and consulted with
experts in the different industries in which The Trump
Organization operates to establish its estimate of around $80
million in cash after operating expenses from Trump's businesses
in 2024.
With respect to Trump's interests in real estate - the
business on which he built his reputation - Reuters looked at
each of the properties in which Trump has an interest
individually. For income-yielding properties like his office
tower at 40 Wall Street or the retail units at Trump Tower in
New York, Reuters worked off net operating income and rental
rate figures produced between 2011 and 2021 by The Trump
Organization released as part of the New York fraud trial
against the group. Reuters also used information about
commercial mortgage backed securities in which the group's
mortgages have been packaged, and financial information from
property tax appeals.
These were adjusted by Reuters for additional costs such as
routine capital expenditure and leasing fees based on expert
guidance and historic averages. Reuters also deducted debt
costs, which can be ascertained from his Office of Government
Ethics (OGE) Candidate financial disclosure, state property
records and information released as part of the fraud trial.
Historical net operating income (NOI) figures were checked
against tax returns and adjusted to reflect current market
conditions, vacancies and other variables, based on expert
advice. There's uncertainty about rental rates and occupancy
levels.
In total, Reuters estimated that Trump will generate free
cashflow from property rental and sales in New York, San
Francisco, Chicago, Las Vegas and Florida of around $3 million
in 2024. It would have been higher were it not for the April
repayment of an around $12 million loan related to Trump Plaza
in New York.
For Trump's golf and resort properties, Reuters worked off
published accounts where these were available, and net operating
income figures produced by an expert hired by the New York
Attorney General in the fraud case. The expert's NOI
calculations were broadly similar to, if usually somewhat lower
than, income figures in valuations produced by a Trump expert
in the case. They were also largely consistent with tax return
information released by the Ways & Means Committee in 2022.
Reuters adjusted 2021 earnings based on revenue increases at
the clubs projected by the Trump expert. Reuters cross-checked
the revenue forecasts, produced in 2023, with industry trends
and revenue figures Trump reported in his OGE disclosure in
August 2024.
Reuters' forecast excludes major capital expenditure on
upgrades. Reuters found no reports of major new upgrades at his
properties being planned in 2024, but its estimate that Trump's
clubs may generate around $70 million this year could be too
high.
Trump earns money from licensing his name to foreign real
estate developers and publishes the revenue received in his OGE
financial disclosures. Reuters estimated Trump will receive a
similar amount from existing deals in 2024 as in 2023 -a
possible over-estimate - and added amounts for each of the two
deals announced this year consistent with the payments he
received on previous deals.
Reuters estimated $11 million of losses at the Trump
Corporation, the entity which provides a centralized management
function to the Trump Organization, based on figures in Trump's
tax returns released by the House Ways & Means Committee in
2022.
Reuters excluded the multi-million dollar legal costs
related to Trump's various court proceedings on the basis that
much of this is being met by his campaign supporters. Also,
Reuters reduced the cost of operating his fleet of aircraft to a
fraction of historic levels because his campaign pays to lease
aircraft from him.
Reuters also excluded any federal income tax payments.