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IEA trims renewables outlook as US policy shifts and China auction reforms weigh
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IEA trims renewables outlook as US policy shifts and China auction reforms weigh
Oct 6, 2025 10:18 PM

PARIS, Oct 7 (Reuters) - The International Energy Agency

on Tuesday cut its global forecast for renewable power growth by

2030 by 900 gigawatts from last year's outlook, citing weaker

prospects in the United States and China, even as solar power

continues to drive record additions.

Global renewable power capacity is now expected to rise by

4,600 GW by 2030 - down from a forecast of 5,500 GW in 2024 -

with solar accounting for about 80% of the increase, the data

showed.

The downward revision is mainly due to an early phase-out of

U.S. federal tax incentives and other regulatory changes -

lowering the IEA's U.S. growth expectations by almost 50% -

while China's shift from fixed tariffs to competitive auctions

is squeezing project economics.

The downgrade is partly offset by stronger outlooks

elsewhere. India is set to become the second-largest growth

market after China and is on course to comfortably reach its

2030 target, supported by expanded auctions, faster permitting

and a rooftop-solar surge.

Europe's prospects have also improved on the back of

ambitious policies, larger auction volumes and streamlined

approvals, while many emerging economies across Asia, the Middle

East and Africa are accelerating build-outs as costs fall and

targets rise, the report said.

Offshore wind remains a weak spot, with the agency's growth

outlook about a quarter lower than last year due to policy

resets, supply-chain bottlenecks and higher costs.

Pumped-storage hydropower is expected to grow 80% faster

over the next five years than in the previous five as

grid-integration challenges mount and geothermal installations

are on track to hit historic highs in the United States, Japan,

Indonesia and other emerging markets.

"The growth in global renewable capacity in the coming years

will be dominated by solar," IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol

said, urging policymakers to tackle supply-chain security and

grid constraints.

The agency warned that solar and rare-earth supply chains

remain highly concentrated in China, with key segments staying

above 90% through 2030.

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