PARIS, Oct 7 (Reuters) - The International Energy Agency
on Tuesday cut its global forecast for renewable power growth by
2030 by 900 gigawatts from last year's outlook, citing weaker
prospects in the United States and China, even as solar power
continues to drive record additions.
Global renewable power capacity is now expected to rise by
4,600 GW by 2030 - down from a forecast of 5,500 GW in 2024 -
with solar accounting for about 80% of the increase, the data
showed.
The downward revision is mainly due to an early phase-out of
U.S. federal tax incentives and other regulatory changes -
lowering the IEA's U.S. growth expectations by almost 50% -
while China's shift from fixed tariffs to competitive auctions
is squeezing project economics.
The downgrade is partly offset by stronger outlooks
elsewhere. India is set to become the second-largest growth
market after China and is on course to comfortably reach its
2030 target, supported by expanded auctions, faster permitting
and a rooftop-solar surge.
Europe's prospects have also improved on the back of
ambitious policies, larger auction volumes and streamlined
approvals, while many emerging economies across Asia, the Middle
East and Africa are accelerating build-outs as costs fall and
targets rise, the report said.
Offshore wind remains a weak spot, with the agency's growth
outlook about a quarter lower than last year due to policy
resets, supply-chain bottlenecks and higher costs.
Pumped-storage hydropower is expected to grow 80% faster
over the next five years than in the previous five as
grid-integration challenges mount and geothermal installations
are on track to hit historic highs in the United States, Japan,
Indonesia and other emerging markets.
"The growth in global renewable capacity in the coming years
will be dominated by solar," IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol
said, urging policymakers to tackle supply-chain security and
grid constraints.
The agency warned that solar and rare-earth supply chains
remain highly concentrated in China, with key segments staying
above 90% through 2030.