06:05 AM EDT, 10/14/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Unless major US dollar-negative news comes from the United States -- macroeconomics or tariffs -- ING doubts the euro (EUR) will stage any idiosyncratic rebound before getting any clarity on French politics.

Tuesday, Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu is set to speak to parliament before announcing his budget proposal on Wednesday, which will ultimately determine his chances of surviving a no-confidence vote, which is expected for Thursday, wrote the bank in a note.

Another government collapse this week will likely make the euro miss out on any benefits from further escalation in the U.S.-China trade spat, stated ING. Should the tariff story de-escalate, EUR/USD would likely set its eyes on 1.150.

Elsewhere in the eurozone, the ZEW survey is published in Germany. That is, however, unlikely to trigger much euro reaction at this stage, pointed out the bank before its release.

Tuesday's United Kingdom jobs report was mildly dovish, according to ING. Private sector wage growth, a key Bank of England metric, undershot expectations, falling to 4.4% year over year. In level terms, the past three months have been consistently more benign, with the three-month annualiszd rate now at 2.4%.

The bank expects the annual rate to drop to 3.7% by December -- matching the BoE's own forecast. Given wage growth has consistently overshot in recent years, simply seeing these numbers materialize would help ease concerns about upside inflation risks.

The slight fly in the ointment is public sector pay, which was hot in the latest month, added ING. But this reflects the current expansive fiscal stance, and the upcoming budget should make clear that this won't be repeated next year.

Separately, unemployment nudged higher. While data quality issues persist, the ONS notes improvements. The trend remains consistent with payroll data: a steady cooling in the labor market and ongoing wage moderation.

A November BoE cut now looks unlikely, noted the bank. But December -- after the Fall Budget -- is more in play than markets are pricing. ING's forecast remains for the next cut in February, allowing the BoE one more inflation and jobs print.

Pricing for a December cut increased from 7bps to 9bps, and two-year sterling (GBP) swap rates are down 4bps after Tuesday's release, said the bank. EUR/GBP has rallied above 0.870, although further gains are set to face the drag of more French political noise.