06:08 AM EDT, 08/21/2025 (MT Newswires) -- EUR/USD is "becalmed," said ING.

It's fair to say that the optimism over a potential ceasefire/peace deal in the Russia-Ukraine war is now fading, as evidenced by EUR/CHF dropping back down to 0.9370, wrote the bank in a note to clients.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's assertion on Wednesday that Russia and China would have to be part of any future security guarantees suggests the West and Russia remain far apart, stated ING. Indeed, it feels like the next move here is for the United States to swing back behind secondary sanctions.

The bank pointed out that oil and natural gas have gone bid over the last 24 hours, a "mild" euro negative.

On the calendar on Thursday are the flash August PMIs for France, Germany and the eurozone.

Markets may see another tight 1.1620-1.1670 trading range in EUR/USD on Thursday, with the biggest chance of a breakout remaining Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Friday, added ING.

Norway earlier Thursday released much better than expected Q2 data growth at 0.8% quarter over quarter, with positive revisions for Q1. Markets had been pricing a 75bps easing cycle from Norges Bank over the next 12 months, but the data may question whether Norway's central bank is ready to deliver another 25bps rate cut this year.

With a policy rate at 4.2%, the high-beta Norwegian krone (NOK) remains one of the G10 high yielders, according to ING.

The bank has EUR/NOK targets at 11.75 and 11.65 for the end of Q3 and Q4, respectively, this year. Thursday's GDP data is "helpful," noted the bank.