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Wary investors move to "risk off" mode as geopolitical
tension
mounts
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Crude oil prices spike higher on outbreak of hostilities
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US VIX volatility measure at highest point in 3 weeks
By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Suzanne McGee, Linda Pasquini
NEW YORK/GDANSK, June 15 (Reuters) - Investors were on
edge as financial markets reopened on Sunday, with crude oil
prices initially up near 4% as markets were gripped by the
escalating threat of a sweeping conflict in the Middle East.
U.S. stock futures opened marginally lower.
Israel and Iran launched fresh attacks on each other on Sunday,
killing and wounding civilians and raising concerns of a broader
regional conflict, with both militaries urging civilians on the
opposing side to take precautions against further strikes.
Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis joined the fray.
Images from Tehran showed the night sky lit up by a huge
blaze at a fuel depot after Israel began strikes against Iran's
oil and gas sector - raising the stakes for the global economy
and the functioning of the Iranian state.
"The market is very headline-driven and short-term focused,
so there's just a lot of volatility over the near term," said
Kathryn Rooney Vera, chief market strategist at StoneX Group.
Brent crude futures prices added just under 4% to
trade near $76.94 after resuming trading on Sunday, having risen
7% on Friday as Israel and Iran first traded strikes. They later
pared gains to trade up $2.14 at $76.37.
"It is noteworthy that while the Israelis have attacked
Iran's natural gas processing facility, which fuels its power
grid, it hasn't as of now hurt its oil export facilities," said
Eric Beyrich, portfolio manager at Sound Income Strategies. Of
the early market moves, he said "this could all change as the
day unfolds."
Israel's air offensive against Iran that began early on
Friday, killing commanders and scientists and bombing nuclear
sites in a stated bid to stop Tehran from building an atomic
weapon, knocked risky assets including stocks, on Friday. It
also lifted oil prices and prompted a rush into gold and the
dollar, which resumed its role as a safe-haven asset for the
first time in months.
Rallying oil prices pose a risk to the inflation outlook, as
central banks around the world grapple with the impact on prices
from Trump's trade tariffs and the effect on economic growth.
Rooney Vera at StoneX said she was worried about possible
supply restrictions in case of a closure of the Strait of
Hormuz, a narrow shipping lane between Iran and Oman. Any
closure could restrict trade and further impact global oil
prices.
"That could worsen inflationary pressures," she said.
Investors are skittish, and the S&P 500 appears to
have stalled after rallying about 20% from its trade war-induced
April low to near-record highs. Futures opened slightly lower on
Sunday, with S&P 500 futures down 0.2% early in the overnight
session.
"The equity market will breathe somewhat of a sigh of relief
that Iranian military muscle is not at the level that some of us
feared," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer of Cresset
Capital.
Meanwhile, protests, organised by the "No Kings" coalition to
oppose Trump's policies, and the assassination of a Minnesota
state lawmaker on Saturday, added to downbeat sentiment.
"It's more of an oil story than an equity story at this
point," said Jim Carroll, senior wealth adviser and portfolio
manager at Ballast Rock Private Wealth. "Stocks right now seem
to be hanging on."
The Cboe Volatility Index, often called the Wall
Street "fear index," finished at 20.82 on Friday, its highest
close in three weeks.