08:58 AM EDT, 06/27/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Auto sales in the US are expected to post sequential and annual declines in June, while the absence of trade deals could further weigh on sales in the next two months, according to RBC Capital Markets.

The brokerage estimates roughly 1.25 million vehicles to be sold this month, down 4.8% from May on a selling day adjusted basis, it said in a client note. Year over year, RBC forecasts unit sales to fall 7.1% without the selling day adjustment.

General Motors ( GM ) , Ford Motor ( F ) and Toyota Motor ( TM ) are likely to have "performed the best," with the first two companies aided by employee pricing, while Stellantis ( STLA ) and Nissan "were probably soft," according to the brokerage.

RBC expects Stellantis ( STLA ) to continue to lose market share in the near term in order to maintain prices, but recent management changes could bear fruit in the long term. Last month, the maker of Chrysler, Fiat and Jeep appointed Antonio Filosa as its new chief executive, effective June 23.

"As we expected, June likely experienced some give back, which we think will only worsen in July and August, should there be no deal announcement between the US and (Mexico, Canada, Korea, Japan and the European Union)," RBC analyst Tom Narayan wrote in the note. RBC expects these countries to negotiate their own specific trade agreements and not "necessarily go by the UK-deal playbook."

Earlier in the month, the US and UK announced a trade deal that formally lowered some tariffs on British imports, including automobiles. Under the terms, a 10% tariff will be implemented on imports of the first 100,000 vehicles into the US each year, while additional imports will get a 25% levy.

RBC doesn't expect automakers to lift their outlooks during the next quarterly earnings season, until there is some clarity that trade deals can be finalized in the short term. Lower sales in July and August could increase inventories after pre-tariff buying activity helped keep them low, according to Narayan.

Sales of light vehicles in the US are estimated to come in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 15 million in June, down from 15.7 million in May and 15.5 million the year before, the brokerage said.

On Thursday, S&P Global ( SPGI ) said it expects auto sales volume in the US to reach 1.27 million units this month, reflecting an estimated annual sales pace of 15.6 million units on a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Last week, the company raised its light vehicle sales outlook for 2025 by 248,000 units.