NEW YORK, Dec 11 (Reuters) - After a federal court
blocked the $25 billion Kroger-Albertsons merger,
the two supermarket rivals could turn to fast-growing and
profitable advertising ventures to tackle competition and grow,
analysts said.
Retailers like Amazon ( AMZN ), Target ( TGT ), Walmart ( WMT )
, and grocers like Tesco have created in-store and online
media platforms that generate advertising revenue from big food
companies and consumer product makers.
"While this deal was blocked on the grounds of reduced
competition, competitive intensity still remains a big factor
for the grocery industry given scale of retailers like Walmart ( WMT ),
Costco, Amazon ( AMZN ), BJ's Wholesale and Target ( TGT )," Jefferies analyst
Rob Dickerson said.
With rising food prices, shoppers have turned to grocers
like Kroger ( KR ), Albertsons ( ACI ) and Walmart ( WMT ), finding it more economical
to cook at home. This increased foot traffic has allowed the
retailers to collect valuable first-party customer data.
By leveraging it, Kroger ( KR ) and Albertsons ( ACI ) could attract major
advertisers like Procter & Gamble ( PG ), Unilever ( UL ), and
Kraft Heinz ( KHC ), who value the ability to place targeted
ads, analysts have said.
"Kroger ( KR ) also is growing beyond food... New growth
areas-especially personal finance and advertising/media -are
significantly more profitable than core food retail and should
boost the profit profile," Telsey Advisory analyst Joseph
Feldman said.
Retail media networks are highly profitable, with profit
margins ranging between 40%-70%, compared to the typical 3-4%
from selling everyday items.
Additionally, the market for retail media is expected to
capture $82 billion in spending by 2027, growing at an annual
rate of 17%, according to analysts at TD Cowen.
"By investing in and expanding retail media
networks, all regional players can... create new revenue
opportunities and remain competitive without relying solely on
scale," said Alastair James, chief commercial & marketing
Officer for Swiftly, which helps build retail media networks for
regional chains.
Kroger ( KR ) expects its retail media network, Kroger Precision
Marketing, to grow by 20% in 2024. Executives reaffirmed this
growth forecast in their recent earnings call on Dec. 5.
Kroger ( KR ), which does not break out sales for the network,
raked in about $150 billion in annual revenue, while Albertsons ( ACI )
recorded nearly $80 billion.
Albertsons ( ACI ), which stopped providing guidance since the
merger announcement in 2022, had said in July that year it
continued to invest in its fledgling retail media arm, the
Albertsons Media Collective.
Market leader Amazon ( AMZN ) accounted for 74.2% of U.S. retail
media ad spending, according to an eMarketer survey in October
2023. Walmart ( WMT ), which generated about $3 billion in 2023 from
Connect, its retail media arm, accounted for 7.5%.
"(Retail media) is still a fast-growing part of our
business, and the outcomes that we're seeing continue to
demonstrate that we're well positioned for that growth," Todd
Foley, Kroger's ( KR ) interim chief financial officer, said last week.
"As we look at those CPGs (consumer packaged goods
companies) that are advertising with us, we see the outsized
return on ad spend that they're generating. And that's
why...we're seeing those results."
Shares of Kroger ( KR ) have surged 32% this year and analysts said
that a potential deal termination would be an upside for
investors as the grocer may restart share buybacks. Albertsons ( ACI ),
meanwhile, has lost about 20% of its market value in 2024.
(Reporting by Siddharth Cavale in New York and Aishwarya
Venugopal in Bengaluru; Editing by Arun Koyyur)