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California wildfire AI push gets mixed reviews after Los

Angeles

catastrophe

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Altadena fire much bigger than Southern California

Edison's

AI-driven prediction

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SCE to evaluate whether to use longer fire simulation

periods

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Experts say wildfire forecast did not fully account for

how

residential areas burn

By Tim McLaughlin and Laila Kearney

June 9 (Reuters) - Southern California Edison's internal

wildfire forecasts underestimated the potential size of the

Eaton Canyon fire in Los Angeles by a factor of ten in the days

leading up to a deadly conflagration in January, according to

documents reviewed by Reuters.

The miss suggests potential weaknesses in the utility's fire

modeling capabilities that factored into its response to the

January wildfire threats, despite being upgraded with improved

computing, datasets and artificial intelligence.

At the time, wildfires whipsawed through Los Angeles'

western flank near Santa Monica and Eaton Canyon in the east as

they consumed more than 34,000 acres (13,750 hectares) - or some

53 square miles - turning entire neighborhoods to ash.

Although no official cause for the Eaton Canyon blaze

has been released, numerous lawsuits have claimed SCE's decision

to keep power flowing to some lines and towers in the Altadena

area led to the circumstances that triggered it.

SCE has said the cause and circumstances around the fire

are under investigation and will be for some time, and defended

its modeling capabilities.

"We are confident with our fire spread modeling and

weather forecasting," Raymond Fugere, SCE's asset intelligence

director, told Reuters in an interview.

Fugere said SCE's simulations could have shown higher

estimates for acres burned in hard-hit areas. Variations in wind

patterns and available fuels in hard-hit areas may not have been

fully accounted for in the fire spread modeling, he said.

"But overall, we do feel confident with our modeling because

it is giving us very actionable information to be able to make

decisions," he said.

SCE's simulations predicted a Jan. 7 ignition in Eaton

Canyon that could scorch about 1,000 acres within eight hours

without fire suppression, according to an SCE fire potential

forecast obtained by Reuters through a public records request.

SCE told Reuters those fire spread simulations were factored

into the utility's power shutoff decisions as strong seasonal

winds and dry conditions escalated the looming wildfire threat.

The Eaton fire ignited as forecast on Jan. 7, but ultimately

consumed some 14,000 acres, destroying around 9,400 homes and

buildings, and killing 17 civilians - making it the centerpiece

of one of the costliest natural disasters in U.S. history.

Joseph Mitchell, a scientist and wildfire expert witness for

California utility regulators, said SCE's predictions missed the

mark mainly because its models were only running simulations

that extend eight hours after an ignition. The bulk of the Eaton

fire's damage happened well after the eight-hour mark.

Michael Wara, a wildfire policy expert at Stanford Law

School, said the wildfire modeling may also have erred because

it is better tuned to simulating fire in dense shrubs and

woodlands, instead of blocks of homes and businesses.

"Altadena was a wildland fire for about 20 minutes, and then

it became an urban conflagration ... where houses are burning

houses down, and where gardens are the fuel type not ... mixed

conifer forests," Wara said.

SCE, a unit of Edison International ( EIX ),

acknowledged it is evaluating changes to its wildfire risk

models, including whether to use 24-hour fire spread simulations

in the future.

"The January 2025 wildfires raise important questions

regarding the spread of wildfires into built urban

environments," the company said in a May 16 filing with

regulators.

SCE has previously acknowledged that 24-hour simulations

might capture more extreme events where firefighting resources

are limited, according to regulatory filings with the California

Public Utilities Commission prior to the fires. But SCE's Fugere

said the longer simulations produce more uncertainty.

UPGRADED MODELS

SCE's forecast was the biggest test yet of upgraded

forecasting capabilities since California Governor Gavin Newsom

launched the "Wildfire Innovation Sprint" in 2019 - an

initiative to encourage the use of AI to predict disasters and

safeguard lives and property.

Since then, SCE has built four supercomputer clusters

capable of generating 13 billion simulations across 400 weather

scenarios and 29 million ignition points, according to

regulatory filings.

The company also began using the services of Technosylva, a

La Jolla, California-based company, which received $383,000 in

state funding in 2019 to develop forecasting tools for utilities

and emergency responders.

Technosylva Chief Executive Bryan Spear told Reuters his

company's risk models captured the magnitude of the Los Angeles

wildfire five days in advance, allowing firefighters to make

better preparations for the looming catastrophe.

SCE's equipment has not been blamed for starting the massive

Palisades fire, but the utility's forecast also vastly

underestimated its potential size. The separate blaze started on

the same day as the Eaton Canyon fire.

SCE's forecast projected up to 1,000 acres burned in the

Pacific Palisades area, according to the document.

Actual wildfire destruction there included 23,448 acres

burned, 12 civilian deaths and nearly 7,000 structures

destroyed, according to Cal Fire.

Together the Eaton and Palisades fires destroyed more than

16,000 structures and caused most of the $250 billion in

economic losses estimated by AccuWeather.

SCE plans to spend another $8 million on upgrading fire

science and modeling this year, up from $2 million in 2018,

company disclosures show.