(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a
columnist for Reuters.)
By Mike Dolan
LONDON, Aug 13 (Reuters) - What matters in U.S. and
global markets today
By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets
U.S. July inflation data didn't sound the all clear on tariffs
but also didn't send an unequivocal signal about the longer-term
impacts either - and that seemed to be enough to goose Fed
easing expectations, spur Wall St stocks to new records and sink
volatility gauges.
Futures markets are now fully convinced another quarter
point rate cut is coming next month and they're almost halfway
priced to three cuts by the end of the year. The S&P 500 and
Nasdaq raced more than 1% higher on Tuesday, the VIX "fear
index" sank to the lowest of the year and futures are up again
ahead of today's bell.
* Bond market volatility cratered to its lowest in more than
3-1/2 years, even as "core" inflation rose back above 3% for the
first time in five months, as Treasury yields fell across the
curve and the dollar index ebbed to its weakest in more than a
fortnight. President Trump again lambasted Fed chair Jerome
Powell for not cutting rates more quickly and threatened a
"major lawsuit" against him, while also hitting out at Goldman
Sachs boss David Solomon and its chief U.S. economist Jan
Hatzius for the bank's research on tariffs and forecasts.
* Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent talked about the Fed possibly
cutting rates 50 basis points next month "to make up for the
delay" and was hopeful the latest Trump appointee to the Fed
board, White House advisor Stephen Miran, could be confirmed by
the Fed's September meeting. Meantime, the White House said the
plan was to continue publishing monthly employment statistics
even though Trump's pick to head the embattled Bureau of Labor
Statistics, E.J. Antoni, said this month that the BLS should
suspend monthly payrolls releases until data problems were fixed
- and rely instead on quarterly reports.
* Once again, tech stocks led the charge higher on Wall Street
on Tuesday. Alphabet shares rose 1.2% as Perplexity made a $34.5
billion cash offer to buy the company's Chrome browser and Intel
climbed 5% after Trump met CEO Lip-Bu Tan and praised him, after
claiming only last week that Tan was compromised due to Chinese
links. European and Asia shares were higher, with Japan's Nikkei
hitting a record high, and eyes are now shifting to the
U.S.-Russia summit in Alaska on Friday for clues about a
possible Ukraine ceasefire.
Make sure to check out today's column, where I consider whether
the now government-blessed "stablecoin" explosion will juice or
destabilise the economy.
Today's Market Minute
* U.S. authorities have secretly placed location tracking
devices in targeted shipments of advanced chips they see as
being at high risk of illegal diversion to China, according to
two people with direct knowledge.
* Perplexity AI made a $34.5 billion unsolicited all-cash offer
for Alphabet's Chrome browser on Tuesday, a bid far above its
own valuation as the startup reaches for the browser's billions
of users pivotal to the AI search race.
* Investors have faced several counterintuitive swings this
year, including the dollar's plunge and record highs in bitcoin
and U.S. stocks. Now, writes ROI columnist Jamie McGeever, we
can add another to that list: the stellar outperformance of
Latin American currencies against the dollar.
* Overcapacity has made its way into China's domestic market,
with price wars leading to collapsing profitability and
accelerating deflation. The government has responded by
launching a so-called "anti-involution" program. It's had some
early wins, but this could be a lengthy battle, claims Emmer
Capital Partners Ltd founder Manishi Raychaudhuri.
* The pace of new capacity of U.S. solar, wind and battery
systems has slowed nationally and in key states this year,
weighing on sentiment surrounding clean energy. But, writes ROI
columnist Gavin Maguire, climate trackers can take heart from
the continued growth outside Texas and California.
Chart of the day
Wall Street "fear gauges" are plunging, with the VIX index
measuring one-month implied volatility in the S&P500 plumbing
its lowest levels of the year and the equivalent Treasury market
MOVE index at its lowest since January 2022.
Today's events to watch
* Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin and
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Chicago Fed President
Austan Goolsbee both speak
* U.S. corporate earnings: Cisco Systems
Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday
morning? Sign up for the newsletter
here
.
Reuters website
X.
Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect
the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is
committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
(By Mike Dolan
Editing by Frances Kerry)