By Bhanvi Satija
June 20 (Reuters) - Treatments designed to help patients
preserve muscle while losing weight with popular obesity drugs
by Eli Lilly ( LLY ) and Novo Nordisk could generate
more than $30 billion in sales by 2035, analysts at TD Cowen
said on Friday.
About a dozen companies are racing to develop such
therapies, most of which are being tested in combination with
Lilly's Zepbound or Novo's Wegovy, both of which target the
GLP-1 protein to help control appetite.
The initial Wall Street estimates for muscle-preserving
therapies follow promising mid-stage results from experimental
drugs developed by Regeneron and Scholar Rock ( SRRK ).
Investors are closely watching mid-stage data from Lilly's
muscle mass-preserving drug, bimagrumab, which is scheduled for
presentation at a medical conference next week.
Analysts have projected that obesity drugs sales could reach
$150 billion a year by the early 2030s. The unmet need to
preserve muscle will grow with the use of GLP-1 drugs for
obesity, said TD Cowen analyst Tyler Van Buren.
Doctors have raised concerns that patients may experience a
decrease in overall strength due to muscle loss associated with
Zepbound and Wegovy, while experts suggest that more muscle can
help patients maintain long-term weight loss.
Van Buren said that the first such treatment could launch by
2028, although regulatory challenges remain because these
treatments must demonstrate additional health benefits to secure
approval.
"We believe quality of weight loss and lean mass
preservation ... is far too important for long-term health
outcomes to be ignored and that this will be figured out," Van
Buren said.
Some of the new drugs target the myostatin protein, which is
associated with muscle growth, and are expected to see broader
use due to their superior safety profile, capturing the majority
of the market share, Van Buren said.
Other drugs target activin, a protein with multiple
biological functions. Van Buren said that activin-based drugs
will be reserved for patients at higher risk of losing strength,
forecasting sales of about $5 billion by 2035.