08:46 AM EDT, 08/06/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Canada's trade data deficit was less than expected in June, at $5.9 billion, while the consensus was $6.3 billion, but it was still wider than the $5.5 billion gap in May, said Rosenberg Research.

The big story here is how the White House has plagued the Canadian balance-of-payments picture, with June's deficit being the second-largest on record -- after April, noted Rosenberg Research.

Wednesday's data support Statistics Canada's view that real gross domestic product ticked up by just 0.1% month over month in June, offsetting the May dip of the same size -- perhaps there is upside to that number, added Rosenberg.

That said, the trade deficit for Q2, as a whole, came in at a "stunning" $19 billion, by far the largest ever and a source of concern for the Canadian dollar outlook.

One caveat in the Canadian number is that there was a myriad of one-offs, like the fact that sharply higher oil prices provided a boost to energy exports (+3.8% sequentially) while higher tariffs on steel/aluminum, along with a reversal in gold shipments, weighed on the metals sector, pointed out Rosenberg.

While imports managed to rise 1.4% month over month, this was a misnomer because it reflected a huge 28% month-over-month surge in a one-time purchase of industrial equipment aimed at an offshore oil project in Newfoundland. Strip that out, and overall imports slid by 1.9% month over month -- which basically characterizes the current tepid state of domestic demand.