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Nomura's Global Macroeconomics Outlook for 2025
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Nomura's Global Macroeconomics Outlook for 2025
Jan 2, 2025 5:41 AM

08:22 AM EST, 01/02/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Nomura said it foresees United States growth remaining stronger than that of other developed market countries in 2025, with policies of the incoming Donald Trump administration likely to drive the outlook for growth and inflation.

The bank expects Trump to impose tariffs soon after taking office, leading to a pickup in inflation and somewhat slower investment growth.

In contrast, Nomura estimates growth in the eurozone to remain anemic, with the European Central Bank's focus shifting to low growth from high inflation.

United Kingdom growth should slowly recover in 2025, and, unlike in Continental Europe, the bank predicts inflation to remain elevated.

Japan's economy is likely to continue normalizing in 2025, with above-potential growth. Nomura forecasts t this normalization to result in three types of hikes: price, wage, and rates.

China's "bazooka" stimulus may not perform to expectations, given the economy isn't in a normal downcycle, wrote the bank in a note to clients published in December. Nomura projects greater fiscal stimulus, but to achieve a real, sustainable recovery, China needs to clear the property market, fix its fiscal system, beef up social welfare support, and ease geopolitical tensions.

For the rest of Asia, more turbulence lies ahead, according to the bank. Even with continued strong AI-led chip demand, Nomura sees an export downturn due to Trump's tariffs and a downswing in the broader tech cycle.

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