09:15 AM EDT, 04/01/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Oil edged lower early on Tuesday, falling off a six-week high set after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened secondary tariffs on imports from countries that buy Russian oil and ahead of the president's planned 'Liberation Day' announcement Wednesday to set fresh levies on countries and products.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil for May delivery was last see down US$0.11 to US$71.37 per barrel, while June Brent crude was down US$0.12 to US$74.65.
The oil market is now centering itself around various Trump pronouncements, as he tightens sanctions on Iran's oil exports, forcing China and India to seek supply elsewhere. At the same time, his tariffs threats are roiling equity markets on fears the new levies will boost inflation and slow growth.
"Oil market participants are facing a million-dollar dilemma. Should they put their faith in eventual demand recovery coupled with tight supply due to sanctions or rising Middle East tension that could potentially lead to the closure of key oil transport arteries or perhaps attacks on oil infrastructures? Or will economic perspectives worsen as excise duties are introduced with the inevitable negative impact on oil demand? It is simply impossible to come up with a convincing conclusion," PVM Oil Associates noted.
Oil finished the first quarter of the year little changed from the end of 2024, with Brent crude closing out the period up 0.1% from the end of December. The first quarter was expected to be the strongest for oil this year, with major forecasting agencies expecting supply to rise above demand as soon as mid-year, checking prices.
"One quarter through the year, and not only does much of the risk we outlined in our 2025 outlook remain outstanding, but the list of market-disrupting themes has effectively grown longer. The most fundamentally bullish quarter is now behind us, and the market is left without a clear offset to crude supply growth for the first time since before the pandemic," RBC Capital Markets noted.