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Oil Moves Lower as Israel's Response to Iran's Attack is Awaited Amid Weak Fundamentals
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Oil Moves Lower as Israel's Response to Iran's Attack is Awaited Amid Weak Fundamentals
Oct 11, 2024 6:06 AM

08:53 AM EDT, 10/11/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Oil prices moved lower early on Friday as the market continues to await an Israeli strike on Iran while demand remains light amid rising supply.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil for November delivery was last seen down US$0.46 to US$75.39 per barrel, while December Brent crude, the global benchmark, was down US$0.51 to US$78.80.

Traders continue to await Israel's response to Iran's Oct.1 missile attack on the country, with many expecting a strike on Iran's oil infrastructure. With Iran threatening to retaliate against any country that allows Israel to use its airspace in its attack, there are worries over a spreading war that would affect supplies from the Persian Gulf region.

"Iran ... upped the rhetorical ante by stating that if any GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) country allows Israel to use its airspace, the collective group could face retaliation. Hence, we will be watching very closely for the potential flight path that Israel would use. In April, Israeli missiles and jets flew over Syria and Iraq, and military strategists have pointed out that this northerly route would be the most likely path. This would potentially put Iraqi barrels in the balance, as officials in Washington have highlighted the risk of Iran-backed militias targeting oil infrastructure in the country," Helima Croft, Head of Global Commodity Strategy and MENA Research at RBC Capital Markets, noted.

Still, oil's fundamentals remain weak, with Libyan exports returning to the country's 1.2-million barrel per day capacity after being cut to around 450,000 bpd amid a fight for control of the country's central bank. Demand from China, the No.1 importer, remains sluggish as its economy struggles, though the country's government is promising to hold a weekend press conference that could introduce new stimulus measures.

"Much has been made of this weekend's press conference from policy makers where sizeable new spending might be announced, but it would appear that some doubt remains," PVM Oil Associates noted.

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