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Pressure on gas and LNG prices to help switch from coal, says J.P. Morgan
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Pressure on gas and LNG prices to help switch from coal, says J.P. Morgan
Apr 24, 2024 5:40 AM

LONDON, April 24 (Reuters) - Global natural gas prices

will come under pressure through the end of the decade as supply

and shipping infrastructure grow rapidly, particularly in Qatar

and the U.S., J.P. Morgan said in a report.

The growth in gas output and liquefied natural gas (LNG)

facilities, which allow tankers to transport the fuel around the

world, will boost efforts to switch industries from highly

polluting coal to gas, which can cut greenhouse gas emissions by

as much as half, the report said.

The U.S. investment bank forecasts a 2% annual growth in

natural gas production by 2030 to 4,600 billion cubic metres

(bcm) from 4,000 bcm in 2022, which will lead to an oversupply

of 63 bcm by the end of the decade.

LNG exporting infrastructure is expected to grow by 156 bcm

by 2030 from nearly 600 bcm in 2024.

The primary sources of production growth are expected to

encompass the U.S., the Middle East and to a lesser extent

Russia, the report said.

"We see a downward global LNG price trajectory with

increased volatility driven by a structurally oversupplied

market," J.P. Morgan Global chief global energy strategist

Christyan Malek told Reuters.

The world's leading oil companies including Shell,

BP and TotalEnergies are betting on growing

demand for gas and LNG as economies grow and switch from coal to

natural gas as part of their efforts to reduce greenhouse gas

emissions.

The sharp growth in gas supply and the drop in prices could

lead to a rapid conversion from coal to gas that could save up

to around 17% of global emissions, the report said.

"While the risks of over supply in global LNG towards the

end of the decade are well understood, we believe the upside

potential of coal to gas switching on LNG demand has been

underestimated," Malek said.

The European oil companies' plans to grow gas and LNG output

will however have a minimal impact on their plans to reduce

carbon emission intensity of their business by 2030, research

firm Accela said in a recent report.

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