LONDON, April 24 (Reuters) - Global natural gas prices
will come under pressure through the end of the decade as supply
and shipping infrastructure grow rapidly, particularly in Qatar
and the U.S., J.P. Morgan said in a report.
The growth in gas output and liquefied natural gas (LNG)
facilities, which allow tankers to transport the fuel around the
world, will boost efforts to switch industries from highly
polluting coal to gas, which can cut greenhouse gas emissions by
as much as half, the report said.
The U.S. investment bank forecasts a 2% annual growth in
natural gas production by 2030 to 4,600 billion cubic metres
(bcm) from 4,000 bcm in 2022, which will lead to an oversupply
of 63 bcm by the end of the decade.
LNG exporting infrastructure is expected to grow by 156 bcm
by 2030 from nearly 600 bcm in 2024.
The primary sources of production growth are expected to
encompass the U.S., the Middle East and to a lesser extent
Russia, the report said.
"We see a downward global LNG price trajectory with
increased volatility driven by a structurally oversupplied
market," J.P. Morgan Global chief global energy strategist
Christyan Malek told Reuters.
The world's leading oil companies including Shell,
BP and TotalEnergies are betting on growing
demand for gas and LNG as economies grow and switch from coal to
natural gas as part of their efforts to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions.
The sharp growth in gas supply and the drop in prices could
lead to a rapid conversion from coal to gas that could save up
to around 17% of global emissions, the report said.
"While the risks of over supply in global LNG towards the
end of the decade are well understood, we believe the upside
potential of coal to gas switching on LNG demand has been
underestimated," Malek said.
The European oil companies' plans to grow gas and LNG output
will however have a minimal impact on their plans to reduce
carbon emission intensity of their business by 2030, research
firm Accela said in a recent report.