April 14 (Reuters) - Iran warned Israel and the United
States on Sunday of a "much larger response" if there is any
retaliation for its mass drone and missile attack on Israeli
territory on Saturday, as Israel said "the campaign is not over
yet".
Iran launched explosive drones and missiles at Israel in
retaliation for a suspected Israeli attack on its consulate in
Syria on April 1, a first direct attack on Israeli territory
that has stoked fears of a wider regional conflict.
Below are analysts' quotes on how financial markets are
likely to react to developments.
SAMY CHAAR, CHIEF ECONOMIST LOMBARD ODIER, GENEVA
"The newsflow is about Iran and Israel, so that is going to
be most of (what people will be discussing Monday), but we are
still in an environment where we haven't yet digested the U.S.
inflation news and what that means for the Fed, and will they be
able to cut rates.
"We came into this weekend of geopolitical stress in the
aftermath of the CPI report. It is a fragile market environment
in the short term, but after a fantastic period, so it is only
fair that there's a bit of vulnerability."
TINA FORDHAM, FOUNDER AND GEOPOLITICAL STRATEGIST, FORDHAM
GLOBAL FORESIGHT, LONDON
"The scale of Iran's attack on Israel and the launch from
inside Iran as well as via proxies is significant. In terms of
the market reaction, we started to see commodity prices moving
higher on Friday.
"Over the next few days, we are waiting for Israel's
response -- this is the biggest attack on Israel in decades. The
risk of a regional war has increased meaningfully. The question
becomes does Israel seek to broaden the conflict? That is the
wild card.
"I think oil will open higher. Also signs that Iran wants to
enact a soft blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is a concern, as
this means there are potential both supply chain disruptions and
higher oil prices. We have entered a dangerous period ahead of
the U.S. elections."
NICK FERRES, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, VANTAGE POINT ASSET
MANAGEMENT, SINGAPORE
"I am not going to be an "armchair general" and pretend that
I have an edge on how the escalation will play out. From our
perch, the more important news for markets last week was the
trend re-acceleration in consumer price inflation and the
implication for the path of future short term interest rates.
"Moreover, disappointment in the detail of the results from
JPM and Wells on Friday. In that context, as we have noted for
some time, risk compensation in equities is poor in outright
terms and relative to Treasuries. We had already reduced our net
long equity exposure ahead of this over the past two weeks."
BRIAN JACOBSEN, CHIEF ECONOMIST, ANNEX WEALTH MANAGEMENT,
MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN
"The key is whether Iran will consider this retaliation a
measured and final response, unless Israel decides to escalate.
In 2020, Iran considered its response to the U.S.'s killing of
General Soleimani a measured and equitable response. If it stays
tit-for-tat instead of escalating, then we will likely see a
sigh of relief across equities even if oil prices, gold, the
dollar and bonds all embed a risk premium to reflect the
conflict."