06:14 AM EDT, 09/30/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Canada's population growth continues to slow since tighter federal targets on permanent and non-permanent residents (NPR), with Q2 marking the weakest quarterly growth since the COVID-19 pandemic, said RBC.

Non-permanent residents as share of the population fell for the third quarter in a row to 7.3%, but it's still a long way from the 5% federal target for the end of 2026, noted the bank.

As of July, the population reached 41.7 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of just 0.9%. However, much of this growth occurred in 2024, stated RBC.

Even though permanent resident targets were scaled back, immigration continues to be high from a historical perspective, continuing to cushion slowing population growth, it pointed out.

Canada would need to see a further net outflow of almost one million NPRs. So far, it has achieved just 11% of the required net NPR outflow by the end of 2026 despite being 25% through the period, added the bank.

NPR outflows will ramp up more as existing permits expire, tighter eligibility criteria bite, and the weak labor market limit options for new entrants.

RBC's population assumptions have the NPR adjustment extending into 2027, and on that barometer, the numbers for Q2 align. As a consequence, the bank's estimates of population growth are effectively unchanged at 0.9% this year, 0.1% in 2026 and 0.2% in 2027.

Ontario and British Columbia are seeing the most significant slowdowns from the sharp decline in NPRs. Population growth has stalled for the last two quarters in these provinces.

Canada's median age rose year-over-year in July. The country will no longer be able to push out further effects of population aging, given the planned immigration policy reversal, and the last boomers retiring, according to RBC.