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Restaurant Spending Improves in August But Value Remains in Focus, UBS Says
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Restaurant Spending Improves in August But Value Remains in Focus, UBS Says
Oct 3, 2024 12:40 AM

03:05 PM EDT, 09/23/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Restaurant spending improved in August but operators will likely continue prioritizing value offerings through the rest of 2024 amid a challenged macro backdrop, UBS Securities said in a note emailed Monday.

Financial results last week by Darden Restaurants ( DRI ) and Cracker Barrel (CBRL) highlight "improving traffic and sales trends following a pressured July," UBS analyst Dennis Geiger said.

Restaurant and bar spending grew in August at more than double the year-over-year pace of July, while restaurant spending as a share of the consumer wallet increased 10 basis points from July to August, according to the research report, which cited government data. Restaurant spending increased 50 basis points to 56.4% of total restaurant and grocery spending.

Cracker Barrel reported slower-than-expected revenue growth for the fiscal fourth quarter. Geiger said the results indicated ongoing pressure in the less-than $60,000 household income cohort, which is a "consistent theme" based on industry discussions.

Olive Garden ( DRI )-parent Darden's top- and bottom-lines fiscal first-quarter results missed Wall Street's views amid weak traffic in July. It reiterated its full-year outlook, with Chief Financial Officer Raj Vennam saying sales trends have continued to improve since July.

Their results and other industry checks point to an "increasing focus on value across promotional activity, marketing, and food abundance and service," UBS wrote. "We expect value focus to be among the most relevant industry narratives over the balance of the year across restaurant segments as brands maintain an emphasis on traffic in a difficult macro backdrop," Geiger said.

Casual dining year-over-year same-store sales trends improved by 450 basis points in August as traffic rebounded, the UBS note showed, citing Knapp-Track data. Traffic trends were still negative, down 2.5% year over year in August, but were at the best level since October 2023.

The improvement likely reflects the "effectiveness of incremental marketing and promotional activities," Geiger said.

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