03:40 PM EDT, 03/31/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Rogers Communications (RCI-B.TO, RCI-A.TO, RCI) has kept an Outperform rating but had its target cut to C$53 from $54 at National Bank ahead of its first quarter earnings on April 23, with the bank noting the period was "marked by weak loading" and consensus estimates are expected to move lower.

In summary, National Bank forecasts service revenues of $4,397 million (consensus estimate $4423M), total revenues $4,932M (consensus $4958M), Adj. EBITDA $2,250M (consensus $2293M) and Adj. EPS $1.01 (consensus $1.04).

National Bank sits lower than Street on Service Revs for Wireless & Cable amid weaker immigration, competitive intensity and lighter loading, but above on Media revs with help from Four Nations Face-Off.

For Adj. EBITDA, the bank said it had to soften Wireless for weaker top line, reduce Cable because of added investment for coming new Xfinity products, and increase Corporate Items & Eliminations amid ongoing spending for Rogers Bank and corporate brand. The bank forecast capex of $950M (consensus $1,026M) and Free Cash Flow of $640M (consensus $628M).

National's target is based on average of 2025E DCF & 2026E NAV, with implied EV/EBITDA 7.7x PF2025E & 7.4x 2026E. The bank trimmed its forecast and reduced Wireless multiple -10 bps in NAV, noting "sector discipline remains elusive".

Price: 38.60, Change: -0.46, Percent Change: -1.18