TOKYO, May 10 (Reuters) - Japanese technology investor
SoftBank Group is expected to slip back into the red
when it reports earnings on Monday despite technology stocks
including Arm Holdings , its core asset,
performing well over the quarter.
Analysts and investors are also eagerly awaiting clues about
new growth investments as SoftBank has ample liquidity and can
monetise its huge holding in Arm.
The share price of Britain-based Arm, in which SoftBank has
a 90% stake, roughly doubled in February after strong earnings
results stoked investor excitement over Arm's anticipated gains
from the adoption of generative artificial intelligence (AI),
but Arm's share price does not feed into SoftBank's profit as it
is a wholly-owned subsidiary.
The performance of SoftBank's other listed assets were mixed
over the quarter - shares in Coupang ( CPNG ) and DoorDash ( DASH )
rose but DiDi Global and Grab Holdings ( GRAB )
fell. The initial public offering (IPO) market remained
subdued, leaving analysts uncertain of the monetisation
prospects for SoftBank's portfolio of unlisted tech startups.
SoftBank is slated to record a net loss of 72 billion yen
($462.70 million) over January-March, according to the average
of two analysts polled by LSEG, compared to a 985 billion yen
net profit in the previous three months.
SoftBank's management has said it is ready to make new
growth investments but has stressed it will adopt a cautious
approach.
New investments were minimal in the October-December quarter
but analysts say a large, controlling acquisition - along the
lines of its $32 billion purchase of Arm in 2016 - could be in
the offing.
SoftBank could fund up to $30 billion by combining its
liquidity at hand as of the end of 2023, the proceeds of bonds
issued in March and by negotiating a margin loan on its Arm
stake, according to calculations by Nomura Securities credit
analyst Shogo Tono.
But while the Arm stake may make possible an investment on
this scale, its dominance within SoftBank's portfolio poses a
risk should market sentiment turn, hitting SoftBank's value and
fundraising capacity.
Currently Arm trades at premium valuations far in excess of
competitors such as Nvidia ( NVDA ) that have pushed it to
constitute almost half of SoftBank's equity value.
Some analysts warn this is unsustainable. Moningstar analyst
Javier Correonero estimates a fair value for Arm of $57 per
share, compared to its recent trading range around $100 per
share.
Investors were disappointed by Arm's annual revenue forecast
at its quarterly earnings on Wednesday, sending its shares
tumbling up to 8.5% the following day and underlining the risk
of a major rerating.
($1 = 155.6100 yen)