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Tesla May Capture 5% of Estimated Humanoid Robot Market by 2050, RBC Says
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Tesla May Capture 5% of Estimated Humanoid Robot Market by 2050, RBC Says
Oct 10, 2025 9:54 AM

12:41 PM EDT, 10/10/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Tesla (TSLA) could capture a 5% share of the global humanoid robot market by 2050, RBC Capital Markets said in a client note e-mailed Friday.

The brokerage estimates humanoid robots to have a total addressable market of about $9 trillion by 2050, driven by adoption within households, agriculture, manufacturing and retail, among others. It assumes Tesla's humanoid robot, Optimus, could focus exclusively on consumer, manufacturing and logistics, and hospitality.

Tesla aims to have prototypes of Optimus 3 by the end of this year and scale production next year, Chief Executive Elon Musk said during an earnings call in July, according to a FactSet transcript.

"We're going to try to scale Optimus production as fast as it's seemingly possible to do so trying to get to 1 million units a year as quickly as possible," Musk told analysts at the time. "We think we can get there in less than five years."

Tesla has abandoned its target to begin producing thousands of its Optimus humanoid robots by the end of this year due to technical issues, The Information reported Tuesday, citing sources.

"We estimate Tesla's market penetration of the humanoid opportunity at 15% in the US, 8% in the (European Union) and 4% in China," RBC analyst Tom Narayan wrote. "Applying these assumptions, Tesla could generate ($404 billion) in humanoid-related revenue by 2050."

The brokerage raised its price target on the electric vehicle manufacturer to $500 from $325, with an outperform rating.

Price: 416.40, Change: -19.15, Percent Change: -4.40

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