LONDON, April 30 (Reuters) - Unable to predict the
impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's ever-changing trade war,
Stellantis ( STLA ) and Mercedes-Benz became the latest automakers on
Wednesday to yank their profit guidance citing market
uncertainty wrought by tariffs.
Volkswagen issued guidance at the bottom end of
its forecast, but UBS analyst Patrick Hummel wrote in a client
note that the German automaker's outlook did not "include any
impact of U.S. tariffs," calling it "essentially a withdrawal of
guidance".
Trump's trade war has pummeled markets in recent weeks and
even before the latest moves, a Reuters analysis showed that
about 40 companies worldwide have pulled or lowered their
forward guidance in the first two weeks of the first-quarter
earnings season, including General Motors ( GM ) and Volvo Cars
.
The moves underscore the chaos unleashed by the
ever-changing tariffs and the uncertainty in boardrooms and on
Main Street, which is stifling Americans' appetite for spending.
The 25% tariffs on imported autos imposed earlier this month
are expected to raise U.S. car prices by thousands of dollars,
reducing demand and piling pressure on an automobile industry
already struggling with a slowing transition to electric
vehicles.
Faced with a lack of clarity, Mercedes executives exuded an
aura of studied calm during the company's first-quarter
conference call with analysts, referring to the chaos of Trump's
opaque, shifting tariff policy as a "dynamic market
environment".
Chief Financial Officer Harald Wilhelm told analysts that
full-year guidance "cannot be provided today with a reliable
degree of certainty".
But he warned if U.S. tariffs remained in place all year, it
would shave 3 percentage points off profit margins for car sales
and 1 percentage point for vans.
CEO Ola Källenius said the premium German automaker was
still holding "constructive" talks with the Trump administration
on its future U.S. production footprint, but stressed that
Mercedes is determined to "see this through with a steady hand".
Investor reaction was muted, as markets digested the latest
orders issued by Trump on Tuesday which offered some tariff
relief to U.S. domestic automakers.
Under those orders, automakers will no longer also be
subject to 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum or on Canadian and
Mexican goods related to the U.S. fentanyl crisis. They would
also receive credit for U.S.-assembled vehicles.
Volkswagen and Mercedes shares were down 0.5% and 0.9%,
respectively, while Stellantis ( STLA ) - which is far more reliant on
U.S. production and stands to benefit more from the changes -
was up 1.8%.
READY TO WORK
Despite pleas from analysts on a quarterly earnings call,
Volkswagen CFO Arno Antlitz declined to quantify the impact of
tariffs, saying it was too early to do so.
"We stand ready to work with policymakers to find solutions
to support the industry while preserving opportunities for
workers," Antlitz said, adding the group would adjust its
forecast once there was more clarity.
The auto industry plans years ahead, weighing billions of
dollars in investments in assembly plants and new models based
on car sales forecasts. The bedrock of all those investments is
market certainty.
"Trump has a track record of changing course, so there's
every chance we'll see further adjustment," said Philipp Sayler
von Amende, chief commercial officer at British online car
marketplace Carwow.
"From investment decisions to stock availability and
consumer confidence, this is a global industry that needs
clarity - not surprises - to thrive."
Stellantis ( STLA ) said in a statement that its decision to pull
guidance was "due to evolving tariff policies, as well as the
difficulty (in) predicting possible impacts on market volumes".
Pal Skirta, analyst at German research firm Metzler, said
Trump's move on Tuesday to give automakers two years to boost
the percentage of local components in U.S.-made vehicles
indicated his administration was unlikely to pull back from
tariffs and would probably stick to pushing for an increase in
domestic production.
"This could result in two burdens for manufacturers," he
said, consisting of "ongoing tariff costs" while also having to
invest in restructuring global supply chains and increasing U.S.
production.