By Shankar Ramakrishnan
April 4 (Reuters) -
U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs brought U.S.
investment-grade bond issuance to a screeching halt this week,
but market stress had already been apparent over the past month
as jittery investors pushed back on pricing, some bankers said.
Since Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on U.S. imports on
Wednesday, no new bonds have been priced by investment-grade
companies.
The halt in offerings followed a period last month when, for
the first time since the pandemic, companies struggled to issue
bonds at the price they wanted, several bond syndicate bankers
said.
In some cases, bankers said, investors unusually withdrew
millions of dollars in orders for some bonds as books were being
built on new U.S. investment-grade bonds, because the final
pricing was worse than they expected. To their surprise, the
bankers said, investors were changing their minds midway at a
higher-than-normal rate.
The investor pushback has not been previously reported.
"Investors are dropping out of some deals even if they are
priced only one or two basis points tighter than where they want
it to be," said Teddy Hodgson, global co-head of fixed income
capital markets at Morgan Stanley ( MS ).
During the book-building process, when banks seek out bids,
Hodgson said it is "an unwritten norm" that pricing levels can
change 20 to 25 basis points.
A senior syndicate banker at a large U.S. bank, who
requested anonymity to speak candidly, said for some March bond
offerings, as much as 60% of the orders were canceled as pricing
levels tightened. Before March, a 10-15% order drop rate was
considered healthy, the banker said.
Bankers declined to specify bond deals that were
affected.
The investor pushback shows how Trump's trade war has been
affecting market dynamics in recent weeks, as a prolonged trade
war is expected to slow growth and weigh on corporate bonds.
After Trump's tariff announcement on Wednesday, Treasury
bond yields have plunged while spreads are widening.
On Thursday, ICE BAML investment-grade index
spreads, or the premium investors charge over Treasuries,
widened 10 basis points in the largest such move since the U.S.
regional banking crisis in 2023, BMO strategist Daniel Krieter
wrote in a note.
High-grade index spreads are at their widest levels
since August, Krieter said.
The demand for more compensation to buy new corporate
bonds was merely to protect investment returns which have
already been hurt by the recent widening of spreads, said
bankers.
Morgan Stanley's ( MS ) Hodgson said in a normal market, 85% to 90%
of new issues tend to outperform the broader market, but today's
range is more like 30% to 40% as worries about a recession push
yield spreads wider.
Companies are already changing strategies to minimize deal
execution uncertainty, said Richard Wolff, head of U.S. bond
syndicate at Societe Generale CIB.
"Some companies that are infrequent issuers of bonds are
starting to use investor marketing in an attempt to garner
pre-deal interest before announcing a new bond offering."