May 20 (Reuters) - Dealmaking in the U.S. oil patch has
slowed to a crawl in 2025, with the activity expected to stay
muted for the rest of the year, as some prolific buyers focus on
squeezing out value from their past acquisitions, while others
curb their appetite for takeovers due to weak oil prices and
trade uncertainty.
Oil companies have spent $17 billion on acquisitions in the
last three months, a steep fall from the height of dealmaking in
the third quarter of 2023, where they splurged $144 billion on
M&A.
Benchmark U.S. crude recently slid to about $55 a
barrel from about $78 in January, just before President Donald
Trump took office, dragged down by rising OPEC+ output and
renewed trade tensions.
"We're in a period right now where there's so much noise and
volatility that not a lot gets done," Diamondback Energy CFO
Kaes Van't Hof said on a recent earnings call.
"Anything that we would look at would have to be extremely
cheap, and I just don't think we're there yet today."
Investor caution also stems from concerns over Trump's trade
policies.
Despite his push to boost U.S. drilling, trade tensions
could dampen growth and demand.
"(Deal) activity is likely to stay muted for the rest of
1H25 but there could be a pickup in the back half of the year,
particularly if trade deals are announced that reduce the odds
of a U.S. recession," said Andrew Dittmar, principal analyst at
Enverus
The challenge is finding the right fit as investors do
not want size for size's sake but credible in-field operational
synergies, Dittmar added.
Most premium assets in the Permian - North America's top
shale play - have also been snapped up during the M&A frenzy,
leaving behind mostly those acreages that are not highly viable
in the current low oil-price scenario.
That's making dealmaking even harder, as buyers tread
carefully to avoid overpaying for second-tier assets.
"Nobody wants to dilute their portfolio with acreage out on
the fringe of the play," said Raoul LeBlanc, VP at S&P Global
Commodity Insights.
BIG PLAYERS STAY CAUTIOUS
Even large players are showing restraint.
Exxon Mobil ( XOM ), fresh off its $60 billion Pioneer deal,
is focused on value creation.
"One plus one has to equal three," CEO Darren Woods said
during a recent earnings call, stressing any deal must create
outsized value.
Others are still digesting recent purchases.
"We've obviously been very busy over the last year and a
half with Endeavor and Double Eagle," Van't Hof said, referring
to two major Permian Basin buys.