BERLIN, Sept 16 (Reuters) - Volkswagen may

book up to 4 billion euros ($4.4 billion) in provisions for

planned capacity cuts as early as the fourth quarter, analysts

at brokerage Jefferies said in a note after travelling with

company executives in North America.

Volkswagen said earlier this month it was considering

shutting plants in Germany for the first time in its history,

part of a cost-cutting plan as it struggles to compete with

Asian rivals.

"The rationale to re-size VW's namesake (brand) is not new

but management's sense of urgency and determination to tackle

excess capacity and spending patterns both are," Jefferies

analysts wrote in the note.

"Three days on the road in North America with management

gave us conviction that there is no plan B that would rule out

capacity reduction," they said, adding decisions could lead to

provisions of 3 to 4 billion euros in the fourth quarter.

Jefferies did not specify the purpose of the trip.

Volkswagen declined to comment.

As part of its restructuring push, Volkswagen last week

terminated a long-standing job security scheme for six of its

German plants, clashing with powerful unions that have pledged

fierce resistance against any kind of cuts.

"Unions should feel pressure to reach new agreements while

VW will be in position to force lay-offs. There is risk of plant

disruption, but unions can only strike on pay, not plant closure

or lay-offs if the latter are not contractually protected,"

Jefferies wrote.

Jefferies said charges could be around 2.5 billion to 3.0

billion euros and up to 4 billion assuming separation costs of

two annual salaries per worker and "including other closure

costs" it did not specify.

($1 = 0.9007 euros)

(Reporting by Victoria Waldersee; Writing by Christoph Steitz;

Editing by Friederike Heine and Emelia Sithole-Matarise)