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WTI Could Fall to $55 Per Barrel by Year-End Amid Oversupply, Tudor Pickering Holt Says
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WTI Could Fall to $55 Per Barrel by Year-End Amid Oversupply, Tudor Pickering Holt Says
Jul 7, 2025 1:39 PM

04:17 PM EDT, 07/07/2025 (MT Newswires) -- West Texas Intermediate crude futures could fall to $55 per barrel by the end of this year as inventories pile up, Tudor Pickering Holt said in a Monday note, after certain oil-producing nations agreed to accelerate their output by more than expected.

Over the weekend, eight members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies -- a group called OPEC+ -- agreed to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day for August. That compares with gains of 411,000 barrels for the prior three months.

The eight countries -- Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman -- announced the adjustment citing low oil inventories amid a stable global economic outlook and healthy market fundamentals.

"While seasonal demand and near-term compensation cuts by previously overproducing members will partially mask supply adds heading into the fourth quarter, we continue to believe crude builds will accelerate with the magnitude of the oversupply clearly apparent by (the fourth quarter), pushing WTI towards or below ($55 per barrel)," Tudor analyst Matt Portillo wrote.

Portillio expects the eight nations to return another 500,000 barrels a day to the market in September, fully reversing 2.2 million barrels of voluntary cuts a year ahead of their initial plan.

ING Bank also projected potentially lower oil prices on the back of supply gains increasing market surplus later in the year.

WTI crude, however, was up 2.4% at $68.10 in Monday's late-afternoon trading. D.A. Davidson said the physical oil market remains tight.

US President Donald Trump on Monday disclosed blanket tariffs against seven nations, starting Aug. 1. Those include Japan, South Korea and Malaysia.

The OPEC+ will meet on Aug. 3 to decide on September output levels.

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