TL;DR

Analysts see Bitcoin dipping to $106K–$110K before setting new highs in Q4 2025. $114K short-term pivot will determine whether it  holds range or slides into a deeper correction. Whale long positions remain strong, signaling an accumulation phase before a possible rally to fresh highs.

Bitcoin Steady Ahead of Powell Speech

Crypto markets are holding range-bound trading as investors wait for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. A firm stance on interest rates could put fresh pressure on BTC, while a softer tone may offer relief.

Bitcoin was priced at around $113,500, showing a 7% decline over the past week, according to Coingecko data. Trading activity remains high, but leverage in the retail segment is limited as whales restrict large speculative positions.

Analyst ZYN pointed to the $106K–$110K range as a likely test zone: 

“Break below ATH? Sure, that’s capitulation. That’s where the weak hands get erased. And then? New ATH in Q4 2025.”

Notably, the level coincides with the rising trendline constituting the Bitcoin market from 2023. Every retest during Sept/Oct 2023, Aug/Sept 2024, and Mar/April 2025 saw prices bounce up again. The Aug/Sept 2025 setup is now showing prices near the same rising line again, meaning the structure is intact.

Worst case for $BTC?

A clean dip into $106K–$110K.

That’s the same trendline that’s carried this market since 2023.

Break below ATH? Sure, that’s capitulation. That’s where the weak hands get erased.

And then?

New ATH in Q4 2025.

That’s not a chart. That’s a lifestyle… pic.twitter.com/QrBO2Lk8jH

Short-Term Pivot at $114K

Analyst Rekt Capital described $114K as the deciding short-term level, saying: 

“Bitcoin needs to continue rejecting from $114K to enter downside continuation. After all, $114K needs to be convincingly lost for BTC to go lower.”

Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to push above the $118K–$120K resistance line, which has weighed on momentum. A weekly close below $114K would leave bears in control and could open the door to further tests near $111K. Holding above would keep the price action inside a broader consolidation zone.

Source: X

Market Signals to Watch

Data from CW shows Bitfinex whales increasing their long positions. The rally is expected to start once these positions begin closing, but for now, the wait continues. Meanwhile, Captain Faibik pointed to pressure on moving averages:

“BTC has exactly Retested the Daily EMA50 and is now preparing for another Bearish impulse. If the $111.8K Support breaks, be Ready for a drop toward $108K.”

For now, the $106K–$114K band is the focal point for traders. Whether Bitcoin holds this zone or slips lower will decide if the next move is a retest of support or the start of a new leg higher.