TL;DR

Lawyers suggest that the lawsuit might be resolved with a potential $125 million settlement if the SEC leadership changes. One of them believes that a complete dismissal of the case is unrealistic.

A Possible Resolution Next Year?

The lawsuit between Ripple and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) dates back to 2020, when the watchdog accused the company and some of its executives of illegally raising more than $1.3 billion in an unregistered securities offering by selling XRP.

The case went through several ups and downs in the following years, with Ripple securing some vital (yet partial) court wins. In the summer of 2023, for example, Judge Torres ruled that the firms XRP sales to retail investors on crypto exchanges did not violate securities laws. Earlier this year, though, she determined that Ripples direct sales of its native token to institutional investors violated federal securities laws, thus fining the enterprise $125 million.

The firm seemed ready to pay the penalty, thus settling the lawsuit. However, the SEC prolonged it by appealing the aforementioned 2023 verdict. The regulators action means that the official resolution of the legal battle may occur in a few years. 

Nonetheless, Donald Trumps victory in the US presidential elections could bring the end closer. At least, that is what the American attorney Jeremy Hogan assumed.

Trump promised to fire the SECs Chairman Gary Gensler on day one after taking the helm. While his inauguration is set for January 20, Hogan believes Gensler will step down before that day. 

He predicted that the new agency leader might dispose of all non-fraud crypto lawsuits the regulator has filed over the years. The recommendation is expected to be approved by the Commissioners since the division will be comprised of Republicans.

According to Hogan, such an outcome would result in the settlement of the Ripple v. SEC case for the previously ruled amount of $125 million. 

It would beawkward to settle for less than what was already awarded by a Court! The Coinbase and other cases in litigation will simply be dismissed. This will take some time. Not January, but perhaps before summer. Thats my call, and Im sticking to it, the lawyer concluded.

An Additional Opinion

Fred Rispoli another US attorney who has been following the updates surrounding the Ripple v. SEC legal tussle also chipped in. He claimed that the election of Trump should be considered good news as it will lead to extreme changes at the agency. He thinks those amendments will come into effect in March or April next year. 

Contrary to Hogan, Rispoli believes dismissing the lawsuit is unrealistic. In his view, the $125 million penalty is the biggest win the SEC can gain. The attorney also predicted that the regulators new potential leadership will recognize this whole case was idiotic and settle at that point.

This might include a reduction in the fine and an agreement that current sales of XRP by Ripple are sufficiently structured to not be investment contracts, Rispoli added.