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Fed seen less likely to raise rates as job growth slows
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Fed seen less likely to raise rates as job growth slows
Jul 2, 2026 6:31 AM

July 2 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve policymakers have less reason to deliver an interest-rate hike later this month, traders bet on Thursday, after a government report showed the U.S. economy added far fewer jobs than expected in the last two months.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 57,000 jobs in June, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its closely watched employment report on Thursday.

That was about half what economists had anticipated. May job gains were revised down to 129,000, from the 172,000 initially reported. 

"The slowdown in payroll growth challenges the narrative of renewed labour market strength that has been building in recent months but, importantly, reinforces the view that the Federal Reserve is under little pressure to tighten policy," wrote Principal Asset Management chief global strategist Seema Shah. 

Traders  of short-term interest-rate futures now see less than a 20% chance of a rate hike in July, though they continue to see an increase in the policy rate in September as likely.

Fed funds futures contracts reflect about a 60% chance of a hike versus a continued hold in the current range of 3.50%-3.75%, versus about a 75% chance of a September rate hike seen before the jobs report. 

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