12:48 PM EDT, 10/14/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Tuesday that there has been little change to the economic picture since the last Federal Open Market Committee four weeks ago, a meeting where rates were lowered by 25 basis points as the balance of risk shifted toward a weaker labor market.

Powell acknowledged the lack of public sector data available due to the federal government shutdown, but much is still available, as well as business contact reports that will be summarized in Wednesday's Beige Book release.

"Based on the data that we do have, it is fair to say that the outlook for employment and inflation does not appear to have changed much since our September meeting four weeks ago," Powell said in prepared remarks to the National Association for Business Economics Annual Meeting. "Data available prior to the shutdown, however, show that growth in economic activity may be on a somewhat firmer trajectory than expected."

The September employment report was due to be released on Oct. 3, after the shutdown began on Oct. 1, leaving the FOMC without one of its key sources of information on labor market conditions.

Powell said that reductions in immigration and labor force participation have produced a less dynamic labor market and heightened employment risks.

"While official employment data for September are delayed, available evidence suggests that both layoffs and hiring remain low, and that both households' perceptions of job availability and firms' perceptions of hiring difficulty continue their downward trajectories," Powell said.

At the same time, inflation remains above the Fed's 2% goal and near-term inflation expectations have increased, Powell said.

The most recent Summary of Economic Projections showed a central tendency for two additional rate reductions this year, an assessment that has been backed up in the last 24 hours by both Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman and Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson.

Powell, however, did not commit to that outlook as some had hoped.

"There is no risk-free path for policy as we navigate the tension between our employment and inflation goals," he said, adding that the FOMC will continue to "set policy based on the evolution of the economic outlook and the balance of risks, rather than following a predetermined path."