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Federal Reserve Watch for March 25: Fed Officials Emphasize Cautious Approach to Easing Policy
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Federal Reserve Watch for March 25: Fed Officials Emphasize Cautious Approach to Easing Policy
Mar 25, 2024 12:05 PM

02:41 PM EDT, 03/25/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic (voter) said that he now expects only one rate reduction in 2024, compared with the two cuts that he had expected a few months ago, due to stronger-than-expected data and a later start to rate reductions.

Fed Governor Lisa Cook (voter) said that a "cautious approach" to easing policy is required despite the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are moving toward better balance. Cook noted the balancing act between easing too early and easing too late.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee (nonvoter) said in an interview on Yahoo Finance that he expects three interest rate cuts this year but would not speculate when the Fed may begin rate reductions.

Recent comments of note:

(March 22) Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic (voter) said that he now believes that the FOMC could begin lowering rates later in 2024 than previously expected, suggesting that there could be as few as one rate cut this year if the data remain solid, Reuters reported.

(March 22) Fed Chairman Jerome Powell (voter) and other Fed officials held a Fed Listens event but did not make any comments on the state or future of monetary policy or the economy. Powell noted that the impact of the pandemic can still be seen in many communities, so it is necessary for the Fed to listen to conditions on the ground level as well as monitor the national level macroeconomic data.

(March 22) Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr (voter) said that there will likely be large changes to banking proposals requiring banks to hold additional capital as a safeguard, repeating comments made by Fed Chair Powell in his testimony on March 6.

(March 20) There were no significant changes to the Federal Open Market Committee's post-meeting statement and no clues about plans to slow the runoff of the Fed's holdings of securities on its balance sheet. Despite adjusting the outlook for GDP growth significantly higher for 2024 in the updated Summary of Economic Projections, core inflation marginally higher and the unemployment rate lower, the median outlook for the federal funds rate remained at 4.6% for the end of the year, still indicating three rate cuts from the current level. The median federal funds rate for the end of 2025 now suggests three rate cuts next year, compared with four in the December update. The end-of-2026 median was revised higher due to the adjustment in 2025, while the longer-term median was adjusted slightly higher to 2.6% from 2.5%.

(March 20) Fed Chair Jerome Powell (voter) said that a slowdown in the Fed's holdings of securities on its balance sheet was discussed at the meeting. While no decisions were made, it is likely to be appropriate "fairly soon." Powell repeated that the FOMC is willing to wait for the pace of inflation to move "sustainably" toward the 2% goal before trimming rates.

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