India is set to announce its second-quarter GDP numbers for the July-August quarter later today (Nov 30). A CNBC-TV18 poll sees the number coming in at 7.03%. This is above the Reserve Bank of India's forecast of 6.5%. However, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das hinted last month that the growth may be stronger.

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With the US GDP coming in at 5.2%, sharply higher than the market estimate of 5%, it remains to be seen if India will also witness an upside surprise today. According to DK Joshi, Chief Economist, CRISIL, there could be a positive surprise today. "The deflator is going to support higher GDP growth, WPI had contracted in this quarter. Second, I think the tax collections, the PMI is, incidentally, in a very strong expansionary zone, I think services was above 60 in this quarter, the manufacturing was close to 60. So that's a very strong performance of these two segments," Joshi said in an interaction with CNBC-TV18.

Read more on US GDP here

According to the CNBC-TV18 poll, overall GDP is seen growing by 7.03% against a growth of 7.8% in the first quarter and 6.2% in the year-ago period, due to a weak base. Agriculture is expected to contribute a mere 2.7% to the overall growth, as opposed to 3.5% in the preceding quarter.

Services like trade, hotels, financial services, and public administration are seen as doing better than manufacturing and industry. The nominal GDP may be close to 8% because of weak wholesale price inflation.

As per Joshi, the impact of monsoons will not be felt in this quarter, but in the third quarter. "And even exports, though they were negative, the domestic momentum seems to have thwarted the headwinds that came from the external environment. Also, I think the fact that the US is doing so well, actually, our trade exposure to the US has increased over the last couple of couple of months. So I think that also might have helped a bit, provided a little bit of support from the external environment, as well," he said.

The July-September GDP numbers are the last big numbers before the monetary policy. A strong growth may reinforce the need for a tight liquidity policy.

In the Jan-March 2023 quarter, India's GDP also surprised on the upside. The numbers came in at 6.1% against the estimates of 5.1%. The preceding quarter's numbers were in line with estimates at 7.8%.

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(Edited by : Asmita Pant)

First Published:Nov 30, 2023 11:40 AM IST