The Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy decision today will keep the dovish tone on the policy front and will also assure that adequate liquidity is provided to the market, said Jahangir Aziz, head of emerging markets economic research, JPMorgan.
NSE
“Central banks over the last 2-3 months doesn’t matter whether the RBI, the EM Central Bankers, the Fed or the ECB. Everyone is telling the market the same thing that they have space, they have more space, just to assure the market and having faith in the central bank to support growth,’ said Aziz in an interview with CNBC-TV18.
Talking about growth, he said for a long time has given up on growth numbers but it is likely that the RBI could revise GDP growth forecast lower just to signal that the economy is softening.
“In terms of whether any of this rate cuts or corporate tax cuts will do anything in the short run is doubtful. One has to recognize that the reason as to why there is no growth globally – there are two factors. One there is an actual problem with global demand and two, there is a huge amount of uncertainty looming on global business sentiment coming from trade tensions and geopolitical tensions,” said Aziz.
When asked if the governor would sound dovish on liquidity despite the fact we having surplus liquidity in the system, he said, “I think RBI is trying to increase liquidity in the market but they will have to keep on saying the same thing which is that they will keep the market adequately liquid. Anything else at this point of time is going to be seen as something that the RBI doesn’t want the market to start reacting to. Anything else will be seen as that the RBI has decided that it has no more firepower or the RBI is seeing things in inflation or financial stability that the market does not see.”
On the borrowing front, he said since right now the government is saying they have no plans to cut down expenditure and if that is the plan in the second half of the year one should expect a significant amount of additional borrowing. The market is pricing a bit of that but not all of that, he added.