Some Brexit predictions have fallen dangerously flat, none more than the suggestion following the referendum result that other countries will follow Britain in leaving the European Union while Britain looks on as triumphant trailblazer. Of an EU breakup there is no sign; if anything EU countries are binding closer as a result of Brexit. The danger is on the British side - a break-up of Britain looks more likely than any break-up of the EU.

“Scotland will be back soon, Europe. Keep the light on,” First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon tweeted on New Year’s Day that brought the exit of Britain from the EU. Sturgeon from the Scottish National Party (SNP) is now launching a new push for Scotland to come out of the United Kingdom (that comprises England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland).

It won’t be soon, but we’ll know soon enough what Scotland wants. Elections to the Scottish parliament are due in May this year. This will be Sturgeon’s big new chance. Her party secured a referendum in 2014 that gave Scots the choice between staying within the UK or leaving to become an independent nation. Scotland voted 55-45 to stay within the UK.

The UK’s departure from the EU could change all that. In the Brexit referendum Scots voted 62 percent to 38 percent for the UK to remain a member of the EU. The May elections in Scotland will be in effect a referendum, even if not constitutionally so. A strong win for the SNP would be an inevitable indicator that a majority of Scots want membership of the EU. The flipside of that means leaving the UK. Many Scots may now find it easier to say Yes to joining the EU than to say Yes to leaving the UK.

Choices

Prime minister Boris Johnson is not likely to offer Scots another chance to leave. The 2014 referendum, he’s said, has settled that question for a generation if not more. Riding the Brexit glory – among those who wanted it – Boris Johnson will not want to go down in history as the Prime Minister who broke up Britain.

But a big SNP win in May would amount to a popular view – constitutionally expressed – that the UK government is holding on to Scotland against its will. That mandate would continue to be expressed in ways that could undermine the authority of the UK government in Westminster.

Scotland is already preparing a constitutional challenge ahead of the vote to the Scottish Parliament. The UK government has made exceptions already for Northern Ireland following EU insistence to make sure it will not have a hard border with the Republic of Ireland, an EU member. Instead, regulatory arrangements are being put in place between mainland Britain and Northern Ireland. No such allowance has been made for Scotland.

Scotland’s Constitution Secretary Mike Russell now says “the UK has itself created the circumstances in which independence is the only alternative for Scotland.”

Seeds

The parting trade deal with the EU could itself have sown seeds for Scottish separation through denial of export rights of seed potatoes to the EU. These are potatoes grown in Scotland and the business is worth 112 million pounds a year. More than money loss for seed potato farmers, this stands as a signpost to separation. Scottish farmers are feeling left out, and others are crying foul.

True, Boris Johnson has been particularly emphatic in promoting lower duty on Scotch whiskey in countries including India. But no early signs appear that Boris Johnson will get Scotch whiskey the bigger market he wants for it in India or elsewhere. He would have to do a lot more for Scotland to win back enough Scots from wanting to align with the EU rather than with the UK.

The UK government believes Brexit offers new windows for all of Britain that, of course, includes Scotland currently. “For British exporters now the whole world will be treated the same,” he said after signing the trade deal with the EU. “That will galvanise our exporters to think more positively and dynamically about the opportunities that they have.”

Significant new prosperity in Scotland as a result of Brexit could be Boris Johnson’s only defence against an SNP majority that would sow the seeds of internal confrontations within Britain for a long time to come.

—London Eye is a weekly column by CNBC-TV18’s Sanjay Suri, which gives a peek at business-as-unusual from London and around. Read his columns here

First Published:Jan 3, 2021 1:58 PM IST