financetom
Economy
financetom
/
Economy
/
Oil shock nicked US GDP but resilience was the message, Dallas Fed research finds
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
Oil shock nicked US GDP but resilience was the message, Dallas Fed research finds
Jun 23, 2026 9:22 AM

WASHINGTON, June 23 (Reuters) - Oil surging to more than $120 a barrel last spring cut about three-tenths of a percentage point from U.S. economic output, but the blow was a small fraction of what would have taken place from a similar oil shock in the 1980s when the country was more reliant on imports, a new Dallas Fed study estimated.

The roughly 15% cut to global oil supplies after the U.S.-backed war with Iran led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes upended world commodity markets as prices rose, supplies became scarce in parts of the world and overall demand dropped.

Dallas Fed researchers estimated that economic activity outside the U.S. fell 1.7% as a result of the war. 

But as a net oil exporter, changes in price have a double-edged effect in the U.S., hitting consumers as prices for gasoline rise, for example, but also benefitting oil industry firms and their stockholders. Better efficiency also means U.S. economic output is less dependent on energy than in the past.

Dallas Fed economists Lutz Kilian, Michael Plante and Alexander W. Richter developed a model estimating how the different impacts net out, and found the economy much more immune to oil price shifts than it was in the 1970s and 1980s during prior Middle East supply disruptions.

Those earlier disruptions were smaller but came at a time when the U.S. was spending around 8% of its gross domestic product on oil versus around 3% today.

A change in supply in the 1980s similar to what was just experienced would have cut GDP by an estimated 5.6%, with the rest of the world seeing a comparable 6% decline in output, the research found.

The findings buttress recent economic data showing that the war did little apparent damage to the U.S. economic outlook, with job growth accelerating in recent months and consumption relatively unscathed. Federal Reserve officials are concerned about the impact on prices, but also feel that the impact on inflation could be short-lived.

The U.S. economy grew at about a 1.6% annual rate over the first three months of the year. 

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
Fed 'in a fog' as it heads toward another rate cut
Fed 'in a fog' as it heads toward another rate cut
Oct 28, 2025
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday as policymakers steer the U.S. economy based on limited data that has nevertheless kept concerns about the strength of the job market top of mind. Economists polled by Reuters were nearly unanimous in expecting the U.S. central bank to reduce...
Rate Cuts A Foregone Conclusion? Polymarket Bettors Convinced Jerome Powell-led Federal Reserve Will Slash On Wednesday
Rate Cuts A Foregone Conclusion? Polymarket Bettors Convinced Jerome Powell-led Federal Reserve Will Slash On Wednesday
Oct 29, 2025
Cryptocurrency punters are largely confident that the Federal Reserve will slash interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday. A Done Deal? As of this writing, the odds of a quarter-point reduction stood at 98% on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket. On the other hand, there was only a 1% chance that the rates would stay at their current range...
Caterpillar's third-quarter profit drops on weak US construction activity, tariffs
Caterpillar's third-quarter profit drops on weak US construction activity, tariffs
Oct 29, 2025
(Reuters) -Caterpillar ( CAT ) reported a lower third-quarter profit on Wednesday, hit by weak construction activity in the U.S. and tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. The company, seen as a bellwether for the global industrial economy, reported an adjusted per share profit of $4.95, down from $5.17 a year earlier. (Reporting by Nandan Mandayam and Nathan Gomes in Bengaluru;...
Trump again targets Fed's Powell on interest rate cuts
Trump again targets Fed's Powell on interest rate cuts
Oct 28, 2025
SEOUL (Reuters) -U.S. President Donald Trump complained on Thursday about the Federal Reserve, once again taking aim at central bank chief Jerome Powell for perceived delays in cutting interest rates. Jerome 'Too Late' Powell, Trump said in a speech in the South Korean city of Gyeongju, prompting laughter from an audience of corporate executives and leaders gathered for the CEO...
Copyright 2023-2026 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved