financetom
Economy
financetom
/
Economy
/
Under Trump, a unified Congress could push through tax and spending cuts
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
Under Trump, a unified Congress could push through tax and spending cuts
Nov 9, 2024 11:32 AM

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Donald Trump's Republicans looked set on Wednesday to possibly win control of both chambers of Congress, giving them sweeping powers for the first time in eight years to ram through a broad agenda of tax and spending cuts, energy deregulation and border security controls.

But it would also force them to confront the dilemma of pursuing a Trump policy plan that could undermine the party's long-proclaimed goal of reining in the government's $35 trillion in debt.

Republicans secured a 52-48 U.S. Senate majority and were on track to expand their narrow House of Representatives majority, although 51 of the House of Representatives' 435 races remained uncalled.

Early priorities are expected to include extending Trump's 2017 tax cuts, funding the wall along the U.S.-Mexico border, cutting unspent funds allocated by Democrats, eliminating the Department of Education and curbing the powers of agencies including the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, according to Republican lawmakers and aides.

The tax cut proposals Trump made on the campaign trail - from extending the 2017 tax cuts to abolishing tax on tips, overtime and Social Security benefits - could add $7.5 trillion to the nation's debt over the next decade, according to the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

The federal deficit ballooned to $1.833 trillion in fiscal 2024, as interest on the debt exceeded $1 trillion for the first time.

"We are ready to get to work for the American people," House Speaker Mike Johnson said in an early morning social media post.

Trump repeatedly proved himself able to steer the party's agenda during his four years out of power - notably by telling lawmakers to kill a bipartisan immigration bill early this year. Once returned to the Oval Office, his influence within the caucus will only be stronger.

No. 2 House Republican Majority Leader Steve Scalise told Reuters that lawmakers have been working with Trump for months to ensure that they can hit the ground running with "a real aggressive, bold, conservative first 100-day agenda."

He said they aim to recreate the economic growth experienced early in Trump's first term, before the COVID-19 pandemic struck in 2020 and sent the economy into a steep decline.

Republicans point to buoyant gains in federal tax receipts since 2017 as proof that Trump's tax cuts raised revenues and say his current agenda will bring more of the same.

"History has shown when you reduce the overall tax burden on families, not only do their paychecks go up, but the amount of money coming into the federal government actually increases," said Scalise. "As long as you're controlling spending, that economic growth will actually get you more money to help pay down the deficit."

But the revenue increase they cite is in nominal receipts driven by inflation and an expanding economy. That turns into a decline when the size of the economy is taken into account.

"The Trump tax cuts really did cut tax revenue, and what the Republicans are pointing to as phenomenal growth in tax receipts doesn't actually exist," said Marc Goldwein, CRFB senior policy director.

LEGISLATIVE HURDLES

For the past two years, members of the House Republicans' unruly and narrow majority have repeatedly gotten in their own way, voting against bills backed by their leaders and leaving them to rely on Democratic support to approve must-pass bills.

Even a more disciplined Republican majority will face barriers, including the Senate rule known as the filibuster, which requires 60 of its 100 members to agree to pass most legislation, a threshold the new Senate will not clear with Republican votes alone.

A workaround, known as "budget reconciliation," allows the Senate to pass budget-related matters with a simple majority. Republicans used this in the first two years of Trump's first term, as did Democrats during the first two years of President Joe Biden's term, when they had control of Congress.

Yet budget reconciliation is a limited power. Measures passed with this maneuver must be at least plausibly linked to revenues and spending.

In late 2021,  the Senate's parliamentarian rejected a bid by Democrats to use reconciliation to grant work permits to millions of immigrants living in the U.S. illegally.

Should the 60-vote filibuster rule block a Trump priority next year, he could call on Senate leaders to do away with it, as he repeatedly pressured them to do early in his first term, and as some Democrats urged early in Biden's term.

Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell upheld the filibuster against repeated Trump demands to ditch it during the president-elect's first term. 

McConnell will now step down as leader. While the top two candidates to replace him - John Thune and John Cornyn - have said the rule will stay, they and others who might seek the role have yet to face Trump's direct pressure.

And McConnell predicted on Wednesday that the filibuster will remain.

"I think the filibuster is very secure,"  the Kentucky Republican told reporters

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
U.S. companies' stock purchases via buybacks, M&A to hit 6-year high in 2024, Goldman says
U.S. companies' stock purchases via buybacks, M&A to hit 6-year high in 2024, Goldman says
Mar 22, 2024
(Reuters) - U.S. companies' purchases of domestic equities through more stock buybacks and corporate acquisitions will hit a six-year high of $625 billion this year, about as much as mutual funds and pension houses will offload, Goldman Sachs said. A surge in share buybacks and continued growth in cash mergers and acquisitions (M&A) will be the primary drivers of corporate...
US Congress scrambles to pass $1.2 trillion spending bill, midnight deadline looms
US Congress scrambles to pass $1.2 trillion spending bill, midnight deadline looms
Mar 22, 2024
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives and Democratic-majority Senate on Friday will scramble to beat a midnight government shutdown deadline by passing a $1.2 trillion bill keeping the government funded through September. If they succeed, it will end a more-than-six-month battle over the scope of Washington's spending for the fiscal year that began Oct. 1. If they...
Fed Chair Powell says pandemic has had lasting effects on economy
Fed Chair Powell says pandemic has had lasting effects on economy
Mar 22, 2024
(Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday opened a Fed Listens event on how Americans are experiencing the economy, saying the pandemic has had lasting effects and that to make good policy the U.S. central bank cannot rely only on macroeconomic data but needs to hear directly from people and businesses. He did not make any remarks about the...
US Dollar Improves Early Friday Ahead of Fed Appearances, State Unemployment
US Dollar Improves Early Friday Ahead of Fed Appearances, State Unemployment
Mar 22, 2024
07:38 AM EDT, 03/22/2024 (MT Newswires) -- The US dollar rose against its major trading partners early Friday, except for a decline versus the yen, ahead of a series of appearances by Federal Reserve officials that compensate for a lack of major US data. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to make opening remarks at a Fed Listens conference at...
Copyright 2023-2025 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved