financetom
Economy
financetom
/
Economy
/
US consumers see higher long-run inflation, rising delinquency risk
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
US consumers see higher long-run inflation, rising delinquency risk
Oct 17, 2024 12:50 PM

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Americans said they expected higher inflation over the longer run last month, as their expectations of credit turbulence rose to the highest level since April 2020, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said in a report on Tuesday.

While inflation a year from now is seen holding steady at 3%, three years from now it is seen at 2.7% from August's 2.5% estimate, and at 2.9% in five years, from 2.8% in the August survey, the bank said in its latest Survey of Consumer Expectations.

Meanwhile, while perceptions and expectations for credit access improved, the report found that expected credit delinquency rates continued to rise and hit the highest level in over four years. The report noted the average expected probability of missing a debt payment over the next three months rose for a fourth straight month to 14.2%, from August's 13.6%, suggesting some Americans are facing increased issues with managing their borrowing.

While that perceived probability was highest among households with incomes below $50,000, the largest increase was among respondents with household income above $100,000. Those respondents saw the greatest chance of falling into delinquency in 10 years.

The New York Fed data comes as central bankers are debating how aggressively they'll need to press forward with rate cuts after kicking off the process with a half percentage point easing last month. Fed officials tied that initial move to easing inflation pressures as well as what appeared to be rising risks to the job market. They penciled in an additional 50 basis points' worth of cuts into year end amid expectations of further declines in inflation.

The monetary policy outlook has however been tested by September job market data that proved far more robust than most had projected, which in turn called into question both the size of future cuts and their pace.

On Monday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said recent data does not show an economy that's slowing down all that much, adding, "while we do not want to overreact to this data or look through it, I view the totality of the data as saying monetary policy should proceed with more caution on the pace of rate cuts than was needed at the September meeting."

Inflation expectations data is closely watched by Fed officials because they believe the price pressure outlook exerts a strong gravitational pull on current inflation readings. Last Thursday, New York Fed President John Williams expressed his confidence in the outlook by saying "one positive piece of data that reinforces my confidence that inflation is on course to reach our 2% goal is that inflation expectations remain well anchored across all forecast horizons."

The New York Fed report found a small decrease in expected future house price gains, while expectations of future food price increases rose in September, while expectations for rent, gas and medical care ebbed.

The bank also reported that expectations of year-ahead income and spending declined slightly, while some aspects of job market expectations around finding new work improved.

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
US Congress scrambles to pass $1.2 trillion spending bill, midnight deadline looms
US Congress scrambles to pass $1.2 trillion spending bill, midnight deadline looms
Mar 22, 2024
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives and Democratic-majority Senate on Friday will scramble to beat a midnight government shutdown deadline by passing a $1.2 trillion bill keeping the government funded through September. If they succeed, it will end a more-than-six-month battle over the scope of Washington's spending for the fiscal year that began Oct. 1. If they...
Fed Chair Powell says pandemic has had lasting effects on economy
Fed Chair Powell says pandemic has had lasting effects on economy
Mar 22, 2024
(Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday opened a Fed Listens event on how Americans are experiencing the economy, saying the pandemic has had lasting effects and that to make good policy the U.S. central bank cannot rely only on macroeconomic data but needs to hear directly from people and businesses. He did not make any remarks about the...
U.S. companies' stock purchases via buybacks, M&A to hit 6-year high in 2024, Goldman says
U.S. companies' stock purchases via buybacks, M&A to hit 6-year high in 2024, Goldman says
Mar 22, 2024
(Reuters) - U.S. companies' purchases of domestic equities through more stock buybacks and corporate acquisitions will hit a six-year high of $625 billion this year, about as much as mutual funds and pension houses will offload, Goldman Sachs said. A surge in share buybacks and continued growth in cash mergers and acquisitions (M&A) will be the primary drivers of corporate...
US Dollar Improves Early Friday Ahead of Fed Appearances, State Unemployment
US Dollar Improves Early Friday Ahead of Fed Appearances, State Unemployment
Mar 22, 2024
07:38 AM EDT, 03/22/2024 (MT Newswires) -- The US dollar rose against its major trading partners early Friday, except for a decline versus the yen, ahead of a series of appearances by Federal Reserve officials that compensate for a lack of major US data. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to make opening remarks at a Fed Listens conference at...
Copyright 2023-2026 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved