07:49 AM EST, 12/16/2024 (MT Newswires) -- The US dollar rose against its major trading partners early Monday, except for a decline versus the pound, with the focus on retail sales data for November on Tuesday, the Federal Open Market Committee's rate decision Wednesday, and personal income data Friday before a relatively quiet Christmas holiday week.

The week starts Monday with the New York Federal Reserve's Empire State manufacturing index for December at 8:30 am ET and the S&P Global flash manufacturing and services estimates for December at 9:45 am ET.

Retail sales data for November are the highlight Tuesday, along with the New York Fed's services reading for December, industrial production for November and the NAHB's home builders index for December.

Before the FOMC meeting and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference Wednesday afternoon, data on November housing starts and weekly energy stocks will be released Wednesday morning.

The CME's FedWatch tool currently shows a 97.1% chance of a 25 basis rate reduction to a range of 4.25% to 4.50% being priced in and a 2.9% chance of no change from the current 4.50% to 4.75% range.

Thursday's highlights include weekly jobless claims, the third estimate of Q3 gross domestic product, existing home sales for November and weekly natural gas stocks.

Friday's highlights include personal income and spending data for November and the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading for December.

A quick summary of foreign exchange activity heading into Monday:

EUR/USD fell to 1.0488 from 1.0496 at the Friday US close and 1.0494 at the same time Friday morning. The Eurozone's manufacturing purchasing managers' index held steady below the breakeven point in December while services PMI rose back into expansion territory, according to preliminary data released earlier Monday. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said overnight she expects interest rates to continue to trend lower as wage and economic growth are seen slowing. The next European Central Bank meeting is scheduled for Jan. 30.

GBP/USD rose to 1.2649 from 1.2618 at the Friday US close and 1.2645 at the same time Friday morning. UK preliminary manufacturing PMI indicated a faster pace of contraction in December while services growth accelerated and home price gains accelerated, data released earlier Monday showed. The next Bank of England meeting is scheduled for Thursday, when no change in rates is expected.

USD/JPY rose to 153.8331 from 153.6532 at the Friday US close and 153.4421 at the same time Friday morning. Japanese preliminary manufacturing PMI rose modestly in December but remained below the breakeven point while services PMI indicated faster growth, according to data released overnight. The next Bank of Japan meeting is scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday, with the BoJ's statement due late Wednesday evening US time. No change in rates is expected.

USD/CAD rose to 1.4244 from 1.4238 at the Friday US close and 1.4211 at the same time Friday morning. Canada housing starts data for November are due to be released at 8:15 am ET, followed by a speech by Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem at 3:45 pm ET. The next Bank of Canada meeting is scheduled for Jan. 29.