financetom
Economy
financetom
/
Economy
/
US political independents drift closer to Republicans' sour view of economy
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
US political independents drift closer to Republicans' sour view of economy
May 24, 2024 2:43 PM

(Reuters) - U.S. political independents, who typically occupy the center ground in a closely watched monthly survey of overall consumer attitudes about the economy, have drifted closer this year to the dour views held by Republicans, a potential warning sign for Democrats hoping to hold onto the White House in the Nov. 5 presidential election.

In another indication of the difficulty President Joe Biden faces with voters on the economy - consistently ranked as the U.S. electorate's top concern ahead of the election - the University of Michigan's monthly consumer sentiment survey fell to a six-month low in May. Assessments of the current situation were the lowest in a year and household expectations were the weakest since December.

The breakdown by party not surprisingly shows Democrats - in control of the White House since January 2021 - notably more optimistic than Republicans, a partisan divide that has been routine since the survey began asking for respondents' political affiliations each month beginning at the start of Republican Donald Trump's presidency in 2017. When Trump was in office, it was Republicans who were persistently more optimistic.

Political independents, seen as a critical swing voting block who may well determine the winner in November, have typically hewed closely to the survey's overall score - until this year.

Sentiment among independents more often than not registers as slightly less optimistic about the economy regardless of which party is in power, but since January it has swung materially below the overall survey reading.

On both an absolute and percentage basis, the downside deviation in May - 6.6 index points or 9.6%, respectively - was the largest since the monthly readings have been published. Since January, independents have registered an average reading 5.1 points, or 6.7%, below the overall Consumer Sentiment Index compared with an average downside gap of 1.6 points, or 2.2%, since February 2017, when monthly readings began.

In fact, readings from independents in five of the last six months have been more than one standard deviation below the series average, indicating the gap is both materially outside the norm and persistent. Readings from two of the last three months have been more than two standard deviations below average.

A Reuters/IPSOS poll published on Tuesday showed Biden's overall approval rating this month fell to 36%, the lowest level in about two years.

The economy was picked by 23% of respondents as the most important problem facing the country, making it voters' top concern. Forty percent of respondents said Trump had better policies on the economy versus 30% who picked Biden, while the rest said they didn't know or didn't answer the question.

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
Mortgage Applications Dip As Rates Climb: 'It Is Still Cheaper To Rent Than Purchase For 82 Out Of 97 Major Cities'
Mortgage Applications Dip As Rates Climb: 'It Is Still Cheaper To Rent Than Purchase For 82 Out Of 97 Major Cities'
Dec 18, 2024
The U.S. mortgage market hit a speed bump last week as rising interest rates pushed application activity lower, breaking a five-week streak of growth. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), total mortgage applications decreased 0.7% for the week ending Dec. 13, 2024, signaling persistent challenges for buyers and homeowners navigating high-rate environments. The average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate...
Fed policymakers project two quarter-point rate cuts next year
Fed policymakers project two quarter-point rate cuts next year
Dec 18, 2024
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. central bankers on Wednesday issued fresh projections calling for two quarter-point interest-rate cuts next year amid rising inflation, a forecast consistent with a wait-and-see approach come January as Donald Trump starts his second four-year stint in the White House. The Federal Reserve's latest quarterly summary of economic projections shows policymakers expect inflation by the Fed's targeted...
Fed Slashes Interest Rates By 0.25% As Predicted: December Dot Plot Flags Only 2 Potential Cuts In 2025
Fed Slashes Interest Rates By 0.25% As Predicted: December Dot Plot Flags Only 2 Potential Cuts In 2025
Dec 18, 2024
The Federal Reserve closed out the year with a widely anticipated 25 basis-point interest rate cut Wednesday, lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 4.25%-4.5%. This marks the lowest level since January 2023 and is the third consecutive reduction in borrowing costs, following a 50-basis-point cut in September and a 25 basis-point move in November. The decision to...
Fed cuts reverse repo rate by wider margin than funds rate target
Fed cuts reverse repo rate by wider margin than funds rate target
Dec 18, 2024
(Reuters) - The Federal Reserve adjusted a key part of its rate control toolkit on Wednesday, lowering the rate it offers on its reverse repo facility by more than it cut the federal funds rate. The Fed said that the reverse repo rate will now stand at 4.25% from its prior level of 4.55%, marking a 30 basis point easing,...
Copyright 2023-2026 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved