Cyclone Tej has intensified into a cyclonic storm and is expected to transform into a severe cyclonic storm by Sunday evening, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said. The storm on the Arabian Sea currently lies approximately 820 km east-southeast of Socotra in Yemen and 1100 km south-southeast of Salalah Airport in Oman.

DD over SW Arabian Sea intensified into a CS Tej about 670 km E-SE of Socotra (Yemen).To intensify into SCS in next 12 hrs and further into a VSCS in subsequent 24 https://t.co/83HTlH6GHU cross Yemen Oman coasts bet Al Ghaidah (Yemen) & Salalah (Oman) around early mrng of 25 Oct

— India Meteorological Department (@Indiametdept) October 21, 2023

The Met Department has warned fishermen against venturing into the sea as the storm’s maximum sustained wind speed is expected to reach 89 kmph to 117 kmph. It further said that cyclones can occasionally change their trajectory.

While IMD’s predictions suggest a west-northwest movement, private forecasting agency Skymet Weather has indicated varying models. While a majority of models indicate a path towards the Yemen-Oman coast, some Global Forecast System models suggest a potential re-curvature, steering the system towards Pakistan and the Gujarat coast.

Manorama Mohanty, director of the Meteorological Centre in Ahmedabad, told news agency PTI, “Since the cyclone would move towards the west-northwest, it may not have any impact on Gujarat (which lies to the east). Weather in Gujarat will remain dry for the next seven days.”

However, authorities remain vigilant, recalling the unexpected shift observed in June’s Cyclone Biparjoy, which initially headed westward but later changed direction, making landfall in Kutch, Gujarat. State relief commissioner Alok Kumar Pandey reassured the public, stating there was currently no threat, adding the storm was heading away from Gujarat, according to a report in News18.

The IMD also highlighted the development of a low-pressure area over the southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal, likely to intensify into a depression by October 22. The system is expected to move west-northwestwards initially and then recurve north-northeastwards towards the Bangladesh coast.

This period, from October to December, is historically conducive for cyclone formation in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea due to warmer ocean temperatures. The Arabian Sea remained calm during the post-monsoon season in 2022, while the Bay of Bengal experienced two tropical storms, Sitrang and Mandous.

Skymet Weather emphasised the uncertainty surrounding cyclones in the Arabian Sea, stating that their tracks and timelines are often unpredictable.

Typically, cyclones in the Arabian Sea follow a path towards Somalia, the Gulf of Aden, Yemen, and Oman. However, occasional deviations lead them towards the Gujarat and Pakistan coastlines.

(Edited by : Sudarsanan Mani)