Weather forecasting agencies had predicted that there will be a delay in the onset of the monsoon in 2023. In addition to this, the stalled status of monsoon is further posing more serious challenges for the country.

The South-West monsoon reached Maharashtra's Ratnagiri region on June 11. Usually, under favourable weather conditions, it takes 48-72 hours for the monsoon to reach Mumbai (North-Konkan region) from Ratnagiri. But, the monsoon has been stalled in Ratnagiri since then.

As per the India Meteorological Department (IMD), there wasn't any progress in the advancement of monsoon till June 17. By June 19, there was only a slight movement, but nothing significant.

Now the weather forecasting agencies claim that there will be some development in the next 2-3 days.

Dr Sushma Nair, Scientist, IMD (Mumbai Region) told CNBC-TV18 that, "Monsoon reached Ratnagiri on 11th June. Simultaneously a system was brewing in the Arabian Sea which sucked all the moisture. As this low-pressure system (Biparjoy) was forming in the Arabian Sea, it drew in Westerly and South-westerly winds and weakened them. Strong westerly and south-westerly winds are required for further advancement of the monsoon. This weakness meant the monsoons could not advance on schedule.”

“However, Cyclone Biparjoy has now crossed the western coast, made landfall, and is moving towards central India. So, now the Westerly and South-Westerly winds are strengthening to some extent. The winds will gain more strength in the next 2-3 days and will lead to monsoon advancement," she adds.

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Private weather forecasting agency Skymet has also made a similar prediction. Mahesh Palawat, VP of Meteorology & Climate Change, Skymet Weather told CNBC-TV18, "The situation is now looking bright with regards to monsoon advancement in Maharashtra and positive developments will take place in 3-4 days."

But the stalling of the monsoons has not just meant higher temperatures. For the largely agricultural community that depends on a regular monsoon advancement, the delay is worrisome, as it may result in damaged crops. But IMD says it expects the monsoons to pick up towards the end of June.

Dr. Nair further says, "This entire region is witnessing a rainfall deficit but hopefully it will change in the next 2-3 days."

As of June 14, barring Jalgaon, the entire Maharashtra has witnessed a rainfall deficit of over 60 percent. But experts say that with the crucial westerly and south-westerly winds picking up again, they expect steady progress and good rains in interior Maharashtra. With the deficit being made up by July. They are also sticking to the forecast that the overall monsoon this year will be 94 percent of the Long-Period Average -- and say rainfall distribution may not be too skewed this year.

(Edited by : Sangam Singh)

First Published:Jun 19, 2023 8:06 PM IST