NEW YORK, June 25 (Reuters) - Investors are gearing up
for the final reconstitution of the benchmark indexes by FTSE
Russell on Friday, with the furious rally in artificial
intelligence (AI) related stocks over the past year expected to
leave an outsized imprint on their final shape.
The Russell Reconstitution, an event that typically results
in one of the busiest trading days of the year, will become
official after the closing bell on Friday and concludes a
multi-step process by FTSE Russell for the annual refresh of its
indexes.
This once-a-year change prompts fund managers to adjust
their portfolios to reflect the new weightings and components.
This refresh encompasses a range of the Russell indexes,
such as the Russell 1000 index of large-cap stocks and
the Russell 2000 index of small-cap names which together
make up the Russell 3000 index. In addition, there are
style indexes such as the Russell 1000 growth and Russell
2000 value indexes.
Since last year's reconstitution, the furious rally in
stocks seen as likely to benefit from AI, names such as Nvidia ( NVDA )
and Super Micro Computer ( SMCI ), is expected to
significantly impact Russell's growth and value indexes this
year.
Even with a recent slide, Nvidia ( NVDA ) shares as of Monday have
rallied about 180% from a year ago, while Super Micro has gained
more than 230%. Meta Platforms ( META ) has jumped nearly 75%
and Microsoft ( MSFT ) has climbed more than 31%.
The outperformance in growth means there will be fewer than
400 stocks in the Russell 1000 growth index, according to
Jefferies equity strategist Steven DeSanctis in New York, who
estimates the top five names will account for over 44% of the
weighting.
"All the top names keep getting a chunkier and chunkier
proportion," said DeSanctis.
In addition, the weightings in the Russell 2000 growth will
shift and DeSanctis anticipates a 4.6% decrease in tech's
weighting while health care will gain 3.4%.
The Russell 1000 growth index is expected to have about
two-thirds of its components in just technology and
communication services, said Bryant VanCronkhite, senior
portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments in Menomonee
Falls, Wisconsin.
Meanwhile, about 45 stocks are leaving the growth index,
reducing the index to just over 390 names, compared to roughly
870 in the counterpart value index, VanCronkhite said.
"It becomes much more challenging to beat benchmarks when
you have fewer tools in the toolbox," VanCronkhite said. "If you
have a smaller number of names, you may have fewer options to
construct the ideal portfolio."
While some index providers choose to constantly refresh
their indexes to keep a fixed amount of components in them, FTSE
Russell only reconstitutes once per year, with the exception of
adding initial public offerings on a quarterly basis.
Because the reconstitution is well telegraphed every year,
it also creates additional demand for buying and selling stocks
as some investors may see the additional liquidity as an
opportunity to take advantage of any price dislocations that may
result.
At the June 2023 reconstitution, $72.7 billion and $61.7
billion in U.S. stocks traded in the closing moments of Friday
trading on the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq exchanges,
respectively, according to FTSE Russell.
Due to the concentration in the mega cap growth stocks such
as Nvidia ( NVDA ) this year, the typical large cap growth manager is
underweight by the top ten benchmark stocks by 16.7%, UBS senior
U.S. equity strategist Patrick Palfrey estimated in a report
late last month. Palfrey expects the top 10 company weights in
the Russell 1000 growth index to increase from 56.1% to 61.3%
after the refresh.
"In theory, the increase in concentration from the rebalance
would create buying pressure in these stocks, in practice, the
impact should be mitigated by portfolio diversification rules,"
the UBS analysts said in the report to clients, noting this
should increase tracking error among growth managers.
As of December 2023, approximately $10.5 trillion in assets
were benchmarked to the Russell U.S. indexes and $15.9 trillion
globally. While Russell has begun offering indexes that either
cap the weight of the largest market cap stocks or exclude them,
there are no plans to adjust the methodology of the indexes to
account for the market concentration.
"We're here as an index provider to reflect the market.
That's what we're hearing consistently from our clients that
they want," said Catherine Yoshimoto, Director of Product
Management for the Russell US Indexes at FTSE Russell.
"And for those who have other needs, we are figuring out
solutions that could work for them, like the capped indexes or
exclusion indexes or different segmentations of the market."