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As RBI shock sends Nifty breaching major support, is there a new bottom in the making?
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As RBI shock sends Nifty breaching major support, is there a new bottom in the making?
May 5, 2022 3:01 AM

The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) shock move on Wednesday — to increase the repo rate by 40 basis points — sent jitters across Dalal Street. The central bank also raised the amount of cash that commercial banks have to keep parked with it.

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This caused the Nifty50 to sink 122 points below 16,800, which was close to its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA). Most analysts had seen this as major support for the past few months.

It also pulled the 50-scrip benchmark 560 points below its 200-day moving average - 17,237.8.

Is there a new bottom in the making?

The RBI's out-of-cycle action was followed by the outcome of the Federal Reserve's scheduled policy review. The US central bank announced a 50-bps rate hike along expected lines.

The overnight action in the US soothed the nerves not just in global markets but also on Dalal street.

But the question is: Can the Indian benchmark respect the 16,800 mark decisively now or has near-term support shifted lower?

Ajit Mishra, VP-Research at Religare Broking, told CNBCTV18.com that the Nifty's breach of the 16,800 zone after the RBI's surprise move may be followed by a corrective bias unless the index reclaims 17,500 decisively.

He sees the 16,400-16,000 band as the cushion but with a word of caution: A decline towards these levels "could be grinding".

So, yes, Wednesday's jitters have succeeded in shifting the Nifty's support by 400-800 points.

AnalystResistanceSupport
Nagaraj Shetti16,900-17,00016,500-16,300
Anand James17,00016,400-15,800
Ajit Mishra17,50016400-16,000

Can market participants expect a new bottom in the making?

The Nifty has been in a weak trend for the past few weeks, and the bounceback on Thursday so far can be considered a pullback rally of a downtrend following a downside breakout, Nagaraj Shetti, Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, told CNBCTV18.com.

"The upmove could be short-lived and the Nifty could face selling pressure from the highs," he warns, expecting the index to breach the swing low of Wednesday (16,623) in the near term.

This is reflected in the Nifty50's distance from its six main moving averages, which it has failed to cross decisively in the recent past:

Period (No. of sessions)

Simple moving average (SMA)Signal
516,996.8Bearish
1017,074.2Bearish
2017,294.0Bearish
5017,082.0Bearish
10017,273.8Bearish
20017,243.2Bearish

"There is no formation of any bottom reversal yet in the market," he added.

Some analysts are also of the view that it will have to be a stronger pullback to win the bulls.

Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, believes a pullback to 16,880-16,915-odd levels will not change the prospects of a deep dive into the red to the 16,400-15,800 zone.

"We will now look for either a close above 17,000 or more time under 16,835 for upside prospects to mature. Until then, one can expect vulnerability to persist," he told CNBCTV18.com.

Besides major support at 16,400 and 15,800, he feels "the Shaktikanta Das low of 16,623" could also emerge as a key level.

Catch latest market updates with CNBCTV18.com's blog

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