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CEE MARKETS-FX hold firm with eyes on Fed
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CEE MARKETS-FX hold firm with eyes on Fed
Sep 21, 2024 9:40 PM

(Corrects forint trading range in paragraph 8)

PRAGUE, Sept 18 (Reuters) - Central Europe's currencies

held firm on Wednesday, as along with other global markets, they

weighed the odds of a super-sized U.S. Federal Reserve interest

rate cut later in the day.

A weaker dollar against the euro, central Europe's reference

currency, gave support to the region's currencies, as markets

waited to see if the Fed would kick off its easing cycle with a

cut of 50 basis points.

What it decides could influence central Europe's

policymakers that started their easing cycles over the last

year.

The Polish central bank has taken a long pause after initial

rate cuts a year ago and Romania's central bank made a slow

start.

But the Hungarian and Czech central banks have steadily cut

interest rates, although they are slowing the pace now. Both are

due to meet on policy next week.

ING said the Fed decision will have more of an impact for

Hungary.

"Our economists see a 25-bp rate cut as the baseline, which,

if the Fed is dovish, could promise more rate cuts in the

future, leaving the forint exposed," ING said in a note.

The forint ticked up less than 0.1% to 394.35 to

the euro, caught in the middle of the range of 390-399 in which

it has hovered since June. The Czech crown added 0.2%

to 25.06 per euro, gaining a second straight day as it inches

back toward the psychological 25.00 level.

Markets are betting on another 25-bp Czech rate cut after

the central bank slowed its pace of easing in August.

Czech central banker Jan Kubicek told Reuters this week he

favoured another quarter-point rate cut this month given soft

economic data, a slightly firmer currency, near-target inflation

and lower wage growth.

"For risk assets, including the crown, the Fed decision will

be a source of volatility and so we are counting on greater

fluctuations," CSOB said.

In Poland, the zloty was flat at 4.271 to the

euro. Romania's leu was also little changed at 4.975

per euro.

Stock markets drifted with Prague and Warsaw

indices easing a touch and Budapest little changed, in

line with steadied global equity markets waiting on the Fed.

CEE SNAPSHOT AT

MARKETS 1131

CET

CURRENCIES

Latest Previo Daily Change

us

trade close change in 2024

Czech 0

Hungary 00

Polish Romania Serbian 00

Note: calculated from 1800 CET

daily

change

Latest Previo Daily Change

us

close change in 2024

Prague 1569.45 1574.2 -0.31% +10.99

900 %

Budapes 72683.56 72685. -0.00% +19.90

t 08 %

Warsaw 6

Buchare 17498.88 17507. -0.05% +13.84

st 85 %

Spread Daily

vs Bund change

in

Czech spread

Republi

c

0

Poland

0

0

FORWARD RATE

AGREEMENTS

3x6 6x9 9x12 3M

interba

nk

Czech Hungary Poland Note: are for ask prices

FRA

quotes

************************************************

**************

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