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CEE MARKETS-Zloty declines, erasing yearly gains on US election concerns
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CEE MARKETS-Zloty declines, erasing yearly gains on US election concerns
Oct 23, 2024 4:43 AM

WARSAW, Oct 23 (Reuters) -

The Polish zloty fell further on Wednesday, at one point

erasing all the gains it made this year, as concerns around the

upcoming U.S. presidential election put emerging market assets

under pressure.

Most emerging market currencies slipped on Wednesday, as

investors tweaked their bets towards a gradual monetary policy

easing by the Federal Reserve which helped the dollar, while

caution remained in run-up to the Nov. 5 election.

Recent market pricing of a Donald Trump victory has given

the dollar a boost, as his proposed policies on taxes and

tariffs are seen as inflationary, likely keeping U.S. interest

rates high and undermining the currencies of trading partners.

By 1107 GMT, the zloty was down 0.35% against the

euro at 4.336, off a session low of 4.3425, which was on par

with where it had started the year.

"Clearly the market is preparing for the (U.S.) election and

is discounting the probability distribution. Recently this

probability favors Trump," a Warsaw-based trader said.

"This means a stronger dollar and a revision of expectations

regarding the interest rates path in the States... (which) is a

factor that simply carries risk aversion," the trader said,

adding that the weakening zloty is part of a wider picture of

pressure on emerging market assets.

"It seems to me that this will not end today or tomorrow. We

have to accept this Nov. 5 perspective."

The trader also said that Poland's ministry of finance was

visible on the market on Tuesday, trading foreign currencies at

attractive levels.

In comments published on Wednesday, Polish central banker

Ludwik Kotecki was quoted as saying that "the zloty may remain

subject to greater fluctuations" due to the stronger impact of

the forthcoming U.S. election on emerging market assets.

Kotecki said in the event of a Trump victory, uncertainty

"will probably increase more, especially in our part of the

world... This may result in pressure for the depreciation of our

currency."

The zloty remains Central and Eastern Europe's

best-performing currency this year on the back of stable

interest rates and unblocked funds from the European Union.

Elsewhere, the Hungarian forint slipped 0.16% to

401.05 per euro, with local markets closed for a bank holiday.

The Czech crown was 0.12% firmer at 25.19.

CEE MARKETS

SNAPSHOT AT

1307 CET

CURRENCIES

Latest Previous Daily Change in

trade close change 2024

EURCZK= Czech 25.1900 25.2200 +0.12% -1.94%

crown

EURHUF= Hunga 401.0500 400.4000 -0.16% -4.45%

ry

forin

t

EURPLN= Polis 4.3360 4.3210 -0.35% +0.20%

h

zloty

EURRON= Roman 4.9740 4.9736 -0.01% +0.01%

ian

leu

EURRSD= Serbi 117.0300 117.0500 +0.02% +0.18%

an

dinar

Note: calculated 1800

daily from CET

chang

e

Latest Previous Daily Change in

close change 2024

.PX Pragu 1638.06 1631.260 +0.42% +15.84%

e 0

.BUX Budap 73846.09 73846.09 +0.00% +21.82%

est

.WIG20 Warsa 2234.16 2250.38 -0.72% -4.64%

w

.BETI Bucha 17379.72 17337.55 +0.24% +13.07%

rest

Spread Daily

vs Bund change in

spread

Czech

Repub

lic

CZ2YT=R 2-yea 3.4710 0.0330 +134bps +10bps

R r

CZ5YT=R 5-yea 3.8020 -0.0060 +169bps +3bps

R r

CZ10YT= 10-ye 4.0600 0.0240 +176bps +4bps

RR ar

Polan

d

PL2YT=R 2-yea 4.9980 -0.0110 +287bps +6bps

R r

PL5YT=R 5-yea 5.4660 0.0240 +335bps +6bps

R r

PL10YT= 10-ye 5.8050 0.0230 +350bps +4bps

RR ar

FORWARD RATE

AGREEMENTS

3x6 6x9 9x12 3M

interbank

Czech Hunga Polan Note: FRA

quotes are

for ask

prices

********************************

******************************

(Reporting by Karol Badohal in Warsaw; Editing by Varun H K)

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