The Indian companies across major sectors may see a sharp growth of 117 percent YoY in their profit before taxes (PBT) during the fourth quarter of fiscal 2021 due to last year’s weak base.
While, banks, capital goods, cement, and metals may have the highest YoY PBT growth, property, power, staples and IT are likely to have the lowest, according to brokerage firm CLSA.
With a big reduction in telecom losses, this should allow domestic-focused companies, ex-financials, to have 50 percent YoY PBT growth. Downstream oil companies and media should show profits compared to losses, as per CLSA estimates.
"A weak base due to a national lockdown in Mar-20 should allow 4QFY21 pre-exceptional PBT CLSA’s India universe/universe ex PSU-oil and financials to rise 117/59% YoY," CLSA said.
About 85 percent of the companies are expected to show YoY profit growth, it added.
Strong volumes should boost cement while record margins should push up metal stocks. In the banking sector, a credit cost decline and pre-provision operating profit (PPOP) growth should ensure a strong quarter.
Strong demand recovery should help power companies grow PBT 16 percent YoY. Consumer staples are expected to grow steadily YoY on healthy rural demand and seasonal effects, the CLSA report said.
The outlook for IT companies remains strong and they should report healthy PBT growth.
Strong crude prices will boost ONGC profits and the brokerage firm expects a steady quarter for gas. Autos can show a strong rebound in PBT growth, it said.
However, most companies are expected to face quarter-on-quarter margin pressure due to a fourth-quarter commodity price spike.
Going ahead, commentary on demand and activity as well as banks’ loan books due to the second wave of COVID-19 cases will be watched closely, as will higher commodity prices’ margin impact and the market’s ability to absorb recent price hikes.