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EMERGING MARKETS-Latin American currencies rise amid US tariff uncertainty
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EMERGING MARKETS-Latin American currencies rise amid US tariff uncertainty
Jul 8, 2025 2:04 PM

*

Chile's consumer prices drop the most since 2023

*

Brazil's Haddad sees inflation within target by next year

*

Romanian central bank holds rates steady

*

J.P.Morgan downgrades EM currencies to "marketweight"

(Updates with afternoon trading levels)

By Ragini Mathur, Purvi Agarwal and Shashwat Chauhan

July 8 (Reuters) - Most Latin American currencies rose

in volatile trading on Tuesday as markets evaluated developments

in U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff negotiations and

anticipated additional trade deals ahead of the new deadline.

A day after imposing sharply higher tariffs on 14 trading

partners, Trump reiterated his threat of 10% tariffs on products

from Brazil, India, and other members of the BRICS group of

countries.

He also

announced

a 50% tariff on imported copper and indicated that

long-threatened levies on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals

would be implemented soon.

Earlier this week, Trump extended the deadline for

negotiations to August 1 from July 9, providing a crucial

three-week window for affected countries to finalize trade deals

with the United States and stirring market volatility.

"The tariff announcement was a reminder that markets are not

out of the woods. The White House has not really achieved their

goals on trade and that could be a continued source of

volatility," said Scott Helfstein, head of investment strategy

at Global X.

Asian currencies, including the South Korean won

and the Thai baht, recovered to strengthen

against the dollar on Tuesday, alongside South Africa's rand

.

Most Latin American currencies also advanced after

Monday's declines, with Brazil's real leading gains with

a 0.8% rise against the dollar.

Data from Brazil showed

retail sales volumes

unexpectedly fell in May from the previous month,

corroborating views about an economic slowdown.

Brazil's Finance Minister

Fernando Haddad

said he expects inflation to fall within the official

target range next year.

Chile's peso reversed earlier losses and was last

up 0.3%. Consumer prices in the Andean nation posted their first

monthly drop this year in June, marking the steepest decline

since late 2023 and fueling expectations of interest rate cuts

by the central bank this month.

In Colombia, the consumer price index rose 0.10% in June,

below analysts' forecasts, while the peso was last up

0.1%.

Mexico's currency also recovered from initial losses

to gain 0.3% against the dollar, though the local stock

benchmark fell 0.4%.

Analysts at J.P.Morgan revised their expectations on

emerging market currencies to "marketweight" from "overweight",

citing that "conditions are in place for a tactical retreat"

following the recent gains of EM currencies against the dollar.

Most emerging market currencies advanced against the

dollar, while the dollar index touched multi-month lows

amid a global shift away from U.S. assets.

An index tracking EM currencies was last

up more than 7% year-to-date, compared to a 10% decline in the

dollar benchmark.

MSCI's index tracking Latin American stocks

was flat, as losses in Mexico and Brazil

offset gains in Argentina and Chile.

In other emerging markets, Romania's central bank kept its

benchmark interest rate unchanged, as expected, while cautioning

that newly approved tax increases are likely to push annual

inflation significantly higher in the short term.

Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies:

MSCI Emerging Markets 1231.1 0.4

MSCI LatAm 2350.45 -0.01

Brazil Bovespa 139045.1 -0.32

Mexico IPC 57181.36 -0.42

Argentina Merval 2122583.88 3.544

Chile IPSA 8321.25 0.78

Colombia COLCAP 1690.3 0.33

Brazil real 5.4444 0.78

Mexico peso 18.6038 0.3

Chile peso 940.28 0.26

Colombia peso 4042.5 0.09

Peru sol 3.545 0.51

Argentina peso 1254 0.80

(interbank)

Argentina peso (parallel) 1260 0.79

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