(Updates with European morning trading)
* Money markets price 30 bps of ECB tightening by year-end
* German 10-year Bund yield falls 2.5 bps at 2.925%, its
lowest since April 8
* The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave rates
unchanged on Wednesday
By Samuel Indyk
LONDON, June 16 (Reuters) - Euro zone government bond yields
fell for a fourth day on Tuesday, hitting multi-week lows,
following a preliminary agreement between the U.S. and Iran to
end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
News of the agreement to reopen the waterway, through which
one-fifth of the world's oil and gas usually flows, has pushed
front-month Brent crude futures to their lowest level
since March 4.
Lower energy prices have dampened worries about higher
inflation and slowing growth, and helped reduce expectations for
further policy tightening from major central banks, including
the European Central Bank.
Germany's 10-year Bund yield, the benchmark for
the euro zone, was down 2.5 basis points at 2.925%, its lowest
since April 8. Italy's 10-year yield was down 4 bps
at 3.639%, its lowest since March 18.
Germany's two-year yield, which is sensitive to
changes in ECB rate expectations, was down 1.5 bps at 2.554%
after falling to a two-week low of 2.547% on Monday.
ECB HIKE EXPECTATIONS TRIMMED
Last week, the ECB was the first major central bank to tighten
policy since the outbreak of the war, followed by a Bank of
Japan rate hike earlier on Tuesday.
Investors, however, have trimmed their expectations for
further hikes from the ECB following the peace deal, even though
the details of the deal are unclear. Money market futures are
fully pricing in 30 bps of tightening by the end of the year,
implying one quarter-point hike and around a 20% chance of
another.
"The (Middle East) deal probably gives the ECB cover to skip
the next meeting and buys them time to evaluate things," said
Lauren Van Biljon, senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global
Investments.
"The ECB are tightening this year, they might have to unwind
this in 2027 and maybe that's when we see yields really converge
back to where they were at the end of last year, beginning of
this year."
Germany's 10-year yield is still up almost 30 bps from its
pre-war level of 2.65%.
ECB President Christine Lagarde on Monday welcomed news of the
peace deal, but other policymakers were more cautious. Germany's
Joachim Nagel said there would be no immediate relief on
inflation because it would take months to restore oil supply to
its pre-war level.
ECB chief economist Philip Lane is scheduled to participate in a
Reuters NEXT event on Tuesday, which could provide further clues
on the outlook for monetary policy.
The market is also watching the Federal Reserve, which kicks off
a two-day policy meeting under new chair Kevin Warsh on
Tuesday.
The U.S. central bank is widely expected to keep the fed
funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75% when it announces its
decision on Wednesday, while futures imply around an 80% chance
of a quarter-point hike by year-end.